Top 6 things we’re watching on Election Day
Three days to go!! Register here for our Nov 4 briefing!! Thank you for investing with MVP!! Here are the top 6 things we’re watching in the lead up to Tuesday.
But first … check out our amazing new Election Tracker, featuring more than 500 elections in 35+ states that we collectively invested in so you can celebrate where we made a difference together — including in downballot races you’ve never heard of!
Isn’t it pretty?
Make sure to register for our November 4 briefing to hear directly from local MVP state advisors and local partners that made it happen!
Looking for last-minute ways to volunteer for GOTV? Check here.
Back to the top 6 things we’ll be watching …
1. Did we create the biggest (midterm) early vote in history?
We ran a huge campaign to make 2026 the biggest early vote in history (in a midterm election). So far, it’s looking good! Just over 49 million people have voted early, and we are on pace to surpass total early vote numbers for 2022 (which many states have already done). We’re running way ahead of 2022 for early in-person voting, especially in communities of color. The real question is how many truly new and unlikely voters are we turning out? Early results look positive!
2. How was our turnout and performance with youth and communities of color?
Again, early vote numbers look good, with, for example, Black voter turnout surging across the South. But election night is the big test. In 2024, Democrats learned the hard way: Never take youth and communities of color for granted. Tragically, since 2024, funding has dropped off for organizing and turning out youth and communities of color. Dems are performing well in 2026 despite massive underinvestment. With more resources, we could have done even better.
3. Did we invest in all the most strategic places?
The MVP team prides itself on investing unsentimentally in wherever the margin is likely to be closest. Over the course of the cycle the Senate “waterline” has shifted from North Carolina to Iowa to South Carolina in the final weeks. Soon we will learn: Where did we win by 1,000 votes? (smart investment!) And where did we lose by 1,000 votes? (should have invested more!). If you’re wondering: Yes, even as this memo hits your inboxes, we are moving late money to South Carolina!
4. What shenanigans are our opponents pulling? How is our team responding?
We are hearing scattered reports of election interference — from states like Texas and Georgia meddling with voter rolls to North Carolina imposing confusing restrictions on mail-in voting. The DOJ is deploying poll monitors to Democratic-leaning counties. Vigilante groups in cars are harassing canvassers in rural areas. Post-election, even if we win big, we need to watch like hawks to make sure the elections are certified and winners seated. We are standing by to support our partners at every step in the process.
5. What did we learn from the innovations we invested in?
MVP invested in a range of tactical innovations this cycle, from precinct captains (replacing traditional canvassing) to digital creators (replacing digital ads). We are excited to learn from bespoke local strategies like Michiganders for Money Out of Politics and the Contract with the Maine’s Working Class that also spread to Texas. What can we learn and develop in advance of 2028?
6. How fast can we pivot to the REALLY big goal? Win a governing mandate in 2028!
In case you missed it, here are our Top 10 things to think about postelection. In short, we have big problems to solve in a short period of time! To put it both bluntly and cheekily: We have three years to save the world.
What do I mean? In short: We’ve got to keep building people power in 2027, win a federal trifecta in 2028, and deliver REAL progress on affordability, the climate crisis, AI safety, and more in 2029 — so we can actually stay in power through 2032 and beyond to make that progress durable!
So please don’t disappear in 2027 because we need you with us to do the REALLY big thing in 2028 and 2029.
Thank you for your support, and for being on this journey with us.
Happy election, everyone!
We look forward to celebrating with you on Wednesday — and saving the world together over the next three years.
Go team!
Billy
Billy Wimsatt, MVP Executive Director
(on behalf of the MVP Team)
P.S. Fun videos from our partners for your enjoyment:
- Arizona: LUCHA's Run the Vote, with runners and a live banda headed to the polls in downtown Phoenix.
- Michigan: Michiganders for Money Out of Politics takes its Yes on 2 message to a football tailgate.
- Tennessee: TIRRC Votes “looking for a reason you have not early voted” reel.
- National: Black Voters Matter Fund's “consider this your sign” early-vote reel at its We Got Us bus.
