The time for the 2018 wave is here and NOW! And it won’t happen on it’s own. We have to be the biggest, most beautiful moon pushing up the tide!
That’s why Movement Voter Project has put a ton of time and energy over the last few months figuring out 78 organizations in 66 House Districts that are critical to taking back the House – which is a start to taking back this country!
We know that just pouring money into TV ads and candidate campaigns doesn’t turn out the low-propensity voters we need coming out in huge numbers this midterm election. What does turn these voters out? Authentic, robust, and dogged grassroots, community-based organizing!
But this organizing needs way more resources and support to take the wave to its full potential this year.
Here’s the truth – and some numbers: we think Democrats are overconfident about their chances for winning back the House. Democrats need to net 23 seats to regain control. Due to extreme partisan gerrymandering in 2011, and lower comparative Democratic base turnout in midterm cycles in general, Democrats will face a steep climb – even in a potential wave election year. There are 23 House seats won by Clinton but carried by a Republican – which sounds like good news. 23 is the magic number. But only three of those incumbents won by less than 5% in 2016. Another four won by less than 10%. A full sixteen of these 23 GOP incumbents won by double digits. Defeating them in 2018 is by no means a slam dunk.
Toss-up races are obviously our top priority.But they aren’t our only top priority. Protecting vulnerable Democratic seats is also a top priority – not to be taken for granted (it’s usually easier to protect a Dem seat than to pick up a new one). And we can’t depend solely on the Toss-up races to get us to 23. Inevitably, we’re going to lose some of them. That’s why we have put a comprehensive list together of all key races that have strong local organizing going on in them that can help make the difference between winning and losing.
At the end of the day, we have the responsibility to invest in the grassroots. At MVP we work hard every day to make this happen because we strongly believe that one day poor people will rise up, immigrants and the Muslim community will be protected, people of color will live without fear in their own communities, everyone will have access to healthcare, women and our LGBTQ community will have the respect they deserve, and our environment will stop suffering the consequences of our actions.
Take a look at our recommendation memo to see all of the toss-up, defend Dem, and likely Dem seats that you can help support organizing in.
The wave isn’t a given. The wave is US. And it must happen now.