State of the Race: Polls Are Tied – What is MVP Doing to Win?

This is the closest election in modern history. A few thousand unlikely voters could be all that separates a Blue Wave from a Red Wave. How do we turn out those exact voters? By funding the grassroots ground game.

Here is our basic rundown on where we are and where we go from here:

What is the state of the race?

• All seven Presidential swing states are a statistical tie (see Nate Silver, 538). 
• The GOP is favored to win the Senate and slightly favored to win the House (see The Hill’s Senate & House analysis 538’s House forecast) — BUT we can still defy the odds.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, aggregated Presidential polling as of 10/9/2024

What will move the needle?

• Debates? Trump indictments? Likely not. TV ads? Wouldn’t bet the election on it.
• What will move the needle? The “grassroots ground game,” – the hundreds of year-round local voter organizations whose warm-touch, personal contacts can engage “low-propensity” Democratic voters and persuade fence-sitters.

What is MVP doing to win?

• Funding year-round local voter organizations in every Presidential swing state.
• Fighting to hold the Senate in must-win states like Ohio & Montana — while going on offense in Nebraska, where an upset win could change everything.
• Investing in an unprecedented effort to win the US House — from CA to NY.
• Supporting our local partners’ comprehensive election protection strategies to make sure organizers are safe, voters are supported, and every vote is counted.
• Using our robust Capacity Building Program to give partners the tools, skills, and support to strengthen, sustain, and scale their work.

How do we finish strong?

• The grassroots ground game is still severely underfunded — even as the Harris campaign has raised over $678 million and billions more are going to Democratic political ads. 
• Our goal is to move $100 million in partisan dollars this cycle. We just broke $68 million! We are trying to get as close as we can to $100M with an all out campaign to engage new donors.

MVP is pulling out all the stops in this homestretch. We’re contacting every donor in our networks. We’re grabbing hold of every media megaphone we can get (see this great new piece in Newsweek). Our incredible volunteers have raised millions of dollars and are holding dozens more Zoom fundraisers right up until Election Day. 

Join us in leaving it all on the field this election.