Hey all –

The smokestacks at the Doom and Gloom Factory have been spewing overtime lately…

You know what I’ve been thinking? 

Eff That Malarkey!

Let me tell you what is giving me hope right now: Three weeks ago, almost no one was excited about Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Now look at them! It’s like grandpa had a crisis… It doesn’t matter if you liked grandpa before or not. People are rallying around him like he’s their favorite grandpa ever. Multiple times a day now I hear people refer to him as the best president, at least domestically, since FDR.

Look at Kamala Harris. Three weeks ago, no one was thinking about her. Now half the Democratic Party is pleading for her to be our nominee! Her star is rising and people are realizing she has been underrated. Kamala and Joe together might be starting to look like The Little Engine that Could. 

I don’t know if you’re feeling this too but… just in the past few days with so many bad things going on at once, I’m looking around and suddenly… it’s weird to say this but… 

We. Have. Energy.

Are you feeling it too?

I think the reason we have energy is because… 

Our backs are against the wall. We are the Underdogs. And that’s a good thing.

We’re down in the polls – slightly. Democrats are fighting with each other – a little bit. Our candidate is fighting for his political life. Our opponent looks like a hero and a martyr (he is not). Trump’s campaign team is measuring the drapes on their new Land Rover Landslide Chariot which they think is going to ride them into the White House…

Eff that Malarkey!

When you face down political death like we have, it turns on our survival instincts… [Cue robot voice: Beep Beep Beep Beep Beep. Survival instincts… activated]. And we start to do crazy things like donate a million dollars (which someone we barely know donated last week out of the blue). And the good news is that there are more of us. We have more voters. And we should be able to match the other team dollar for dollar. 

This is our chance to shock the world and interrupt this purported authoritarian landslide – just like they did in India and France. 

We mostly need to just keep putting one foot in front of the other and doing our jobs: Funding the biggest bottom-up voter mobilization push in history. 

What’s the State of Play?

The past few weeks have been a whirlwind. There are conflicting narratives and data sets. The MVP team has poured over almost every source of available data. Here is our take:

We’re down a few points. Trump will probably get another polling bump after this week. That’s normal and likely temporary – it happens after every convention. We have to be mentally prepared that the next month is likely to feel very doom and gloom. 

The struggle over Biden as nominee is continuing but the window is closing soon. Maybe he passes the baton. Likely he stays in. One way or the other it will be decided in the next few weeks. Either way, we’ll pull our coalition back together to support whoever is at the top of the ticket. 

We should get a bump at the DNC and then we can rebalance the race. A whole bunch of people who’ve been sitting on the sidelines are going to come out and endorse the Democratic ticket (if we get Harris and a new VP it will probably be an even bigger bump). 

We may or may not have enthusiasm. But we will have existential determination on our side going into the fall. Trump will have the problem of having peaked early – this ought to make their side more complacent. And it ought to motivate the heck out of our side. Ideally, we’ll go into the second debate on September 10th with an even race. And again, Biden set the bar so low in the first debate that any improvement will be good. 

Then we’re going to have to fight it out on the ground in the swing states – from the first hour of early voting on September 20th to the last person standing in line at 11pm on November 5th.

See below some updates from the states and reminders of what you can do!

Updates from the States:
Doubling Down in the Battlegrounds

People always ask us: What are the groups on the ground who can win this election actually doing? For us, there is no greater source of grounded hope than this.

Here are updates from the battlegrounds (which you can also find here):

Screenshot: KJZZ. “AZ’s largest Black-led voter engagement organization urges voting for Biden, Gallego.” July 10, 2024.

In Arizona, in part thanks to early funding from MVP, Our Voice Our Vote just launched their campaign to re-elect Biden and elect Ruben Gallego to the U.S. Senate, by knocking on 1 million doors to mobilize “New American Majority” voters, including young people, unmarried women, and people of color.

Asian American Advocacy Fund

In Georgia, the Asian American Advocacy Fund (AAAF) has launched its call for endorsement applications from local candidates, whom they will mobilize voters around as part of their push to elect Democrats and progressives up and down the ballot. AAAF plans to knock on 100,000 doors and make 1,000,000 phone calls, in addition to direct mail, ethnic media, digital outreach, voter education, relational organizing, and events. Their year-long voter engagement program includes deep canvassing; candidate ID to build name recognition and support for endorsed candidates; and GOTV from early vote through Election Day.

Michigan United Action (formerly Michigan People’s Campaign)

In Michigan, Michigan United Action (formerly Michigan People’s Campaign) has announced its candidate endorsements for the state’s August 6th primary races. By knocking doors, making calls, and holding events around the issues that matter most to their constituents like immigrant rights and healthcare, they are generating critical momentum for the general election final push that will run from August 7th through November 5th. Their 915,038-voter “target universe” focuses on “New American Majority” voters (voters of color, young voters, and unmarried women) who are low-propensity (and thus overlooked and underinvested in by candidate campaigns), likely Biden voters, and unregistered voters of color.

Make the Road Action Nevada

In Nevada, Make the Road Action has launched an “unprecedented” campaign to mobilize over 190,000 voters across the state, including a critical expansion from Las Vegas into Reno and nine rural communities, where they have identified a universe of 41,000 young and racially diverse voters who would otherwise have been overlooked. Thanks to early funding, they will be scaling their campaign team to 200 paid staff, ranging from grassroots canvassing and phone banking to digital outreach.

Advance Carolina tabling to assist young Black voters in navigating their student loans

In North Carolina, La Fuerza is registering and turning out new and infrequent Latine voters between the ages of 18-25 in urban counties. As part of mobilize them to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot, Advance Carolina is teaming up with Rise to give young Black voters hands-on assistance in navigating their student loans, while drawing the connection to who we elect into office. NCAATIA is organizing and mobilizing young AAPI and other voters of color at 53 campuses and high schools in 10 target counties. (Check out NCAATIA’s digital messaging for the gubernatorial race, against the extreme-right GOP candidate.)

API PA Votes at their first-ever local general member meeting in Philadelphia

In Pennsylvania, API PA Votes just had their first-ever local general member meeting in Philadelphia, bringing together constituents who will help form the backbone of their campaign to knock 500,000 doors across Philadelphia, the collar counties (Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware), and Allegheny County, and make 4.5 million phone calls, including 15,000 calls to non-English speaking voters.

Voces de la Frontera Action, along with the Coalition to March on the RNC. Credit: Claudio Martinez

In Wisconsin, Voces de la Frontera Action and other partners are marching on the Republican National Convention – not to influence the GOP’s platform, but to very intentionally use this moment to galvanize their constituents and supercharge their push to get out the vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. For example, Voces’ 2024 canvass will target 18,211 doors (21,884 voters), with three passes between August 17 and October 22, focused on candidate persuasion and vote-by-mail. From October 23 to Election Day, Voces will knock on a subset of these doors with GOTV messaging, including same-day registration and vote tripling, a relational organizing tactic that asks voters to get three other people in their life to cast a ballot.

What Can I Do?

Where does all this leave us?

After these past three weeks, we can 100% confidently say this: We don’t know what’s next, and there are a thousand plot twists that are out of our control. 

So it’s time for us to double down on what is in our control, which happens to be the very thing that will win this election: Funding the ground game.

Our partner Down Home North Carolina shared by email this week that they organized a call with 100+ canvassers and members, to check in and get input on how best to lead in this moment, after the terrifying and disheartening events of the past few weeks. 

Here’s what they said: 

“The message from our rural working-class members was, overwhelmingly: KEEP FIGHTING AND GET BACK OUT THERE!

Regardless of the candidates, regardless of the news cycle, regardless of the polls, the strategy to win stays the same: Target the battlegrounds, fund the local organizers who are the trusted messengers to the voters we need to reach, and do it now while every dollar will yield the most votes.

There you go. Certainty amidst the uncertainty. 

Here are our marching orders – pass it on:

1. Fund local organizing like our life depends on it, 
2. Rally your networks to do the same, and
3. Get out the vote in swing states.

Our partners in the field are counting on us. 

Let’s do this – for them, for our future, for all of us.

Go team!

Billy Wimsatt, MVP Executive Director
(On behalf of the MVP team)