North Carolina: How We Win

2024 Electoral Goals

Presidency: Win North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes.
U.S. Senate: Build lasting infrastructure to flip both GOP seats in 2026 and 2028.
U.S. House: Defend NC-01, a newly-vulnerable seat after extreme GOP gerrymandering.
Governorship: Elect Democrat Josh Stein to the open seat.
Legislature: Break the GOP supermajority by targeting the most competitive State House and State Senate seats and winning four out of five Senate districts (07, 11, 13, 18, 42) or four out of nine House districts (05, 24, 25, 32, 35, 37, 98, 105, 115).
State Supreme Court: Re-elect Allison Riggs, one of two Democrats on the nine-member court.

State Executive Offices: Re-elect Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and elect Democrat Jeff Jackson to the open Attorney General seat.

Political Landscape

Presidential Vote Margins			U.S. Senate Vote Margins
2020	R	-1.3%	2022	R	-3.2%
2016	R	-3.6%	2020	R	-1.8%
2012	R	-2.2%	2016	R	-5.7%
2008	D	+0.4%	2014	R	-1.6%

Balance of Power

U.S. Senate: 2 Republicans • U.S. House: 7 Democrats, 7 Republicans
Governorship: Democratic • State Senate: Republican majority (30 – 20)
State House: Republican majority (72 – 48)

2024 Strategy

1) Mobilize Black, Latine, and AAPI voters in urban counties.

Voters of color can tip statewide races and break the GOP’s legislative supermajority. While Trump narrowly leads Biden in NC, key blocs support Biden beyond the margin of error: Black (69-17%), Asian (68-26% and the state’s fastest-growing demographic), and Latine voters (54-35%), who together comprise 26% of registered voters.
MVP partners will make 2,500,000 door knocks in the state’s most populous and diverse counties. Groups like A. Philip Randolph Educational Fund, NC Asian Americans Together in Action (NCAATIA), and Siembra NC are quadrupling field operations from 2020, with at least 3,800,000 knocks across forty-eight counties — including 66% of knocks planned in Democratic strongholds like Mecklenburg, Guilford, and Durham.

2) Galvanize a multiracial base of voters in rural communities.

By engaging rural voters, we can “lose less” in GOP strongholds and win more in 2024 and beyond. Mobilizing the “2U” Democratic base — Urban areas and University towns — is necessary, but not sufficient for reliably winning North Carolina elections. By investing in red-leaning rural areas and small towns with strong economic links to nearby cities, we will cut GOP margins and expand critical pockets of multiracial support in 2024, while building political power that will grow each cycle.
The path to power in North Carolina runs through its rural counties, and MVP partners are leading the charge. Down Home North Carolina is knocking on hundreds of thousands of doors across 20 rural counties to win over rural white voters and mobilize Black voters, while New Rural Project is targeting frequent and infrequent Black, Latine, and Indigenous voters by door, phone, relational organizing, and more.

3) Increase youth voter turnout across the state.

Youth turnout could make or break statewide election victories in 2024. Young NC voters poll in far more support of Biden vs. Trump (53-35% for ages 18-29; 47-40% for ages 30-39) and are the largest, most racially diverse but low-turnout voting bloc.
Our partners are leading youth turnout efforts. La Fuerza is registering and turning out new and infrequent Latine voters between the ages of 18-25 in urban counties, Advance Carolina is mobilizing young Black voters around down-ballot races; and NCAATIA is organizing and mobilizing young BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, People of Color) voters at 53 campuses and high schools in 10 target counties.

Partner Snapshots

A. Philip Randolph Educational Fund (APREF)

APREF is a Black-led, member-based organization with 32 chapters across the state. Founded by labor activists and civil rights leaders over thirty years ago, APREF is one of the oldest civic engagement groups in the state. In 2024, they will run a large-scale voter contact program primarily focused on Black voters, including canvassing, phone, text, mail, and digital. The group aims to activate 2,000 volunteers and attempt 700,000 conversations with voters.

Carolina Federation

Carolina Federation is a member-led, independent political organization focused on six diverse urban and suburban counties – Durham, Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenburg, Cumberland, and New Hanover. They will knock on 600,000 doors in 2024 for GOTV mobilization, as well as organizing chapters, holding community conversations, and organizing marches to the polls. Carolina Federation is one of the largest independent field operations in NC and is poised to vastly increase its impact this year and beyond.

Down Home North Carolina

Down Home North Carolina is a statewide membership organization that organizes a multi-racial, cross-class base in rural areas and small towns. Down Home was one of the three largest field programs in the state in 2022 and was a critical partner in the successful campaign to expand Medicaid in 2023. In 2024, the group plans to organize across 20 rural counties to knock 522,991 doors. Down Home will also fight to win in four potential pickup state House races where Democrats have been losing by roughly 1,000 votes or less. All told, the group’s 2024 program will span 20 of North Carolina’s 100 counties, in their largest field program to date.

2024 State Budget (Partisan)

Total Estimated Need: $60 million
MVP Baseline and Stretch Goals: $5-15 million