October 2024 Newsletter: The Biggest Questions We’re Getting
We are thinking of everyone impacted by Hurricane Milton and Helene… For those looking to help, our partner Organizing Resilience supports local efforts by MVP partners to address climate disasters through direct relief and advocacy.
MVP friends,
Hey all – final stretch!
The biggest question we’re getting: What’s gonna happen?
My prediction: We’re going to win the Presidency by somewhere in the ballpark of 10,000 votes. If we lose, we’re gonna lose by 10,000 votes. (See more analysis in our short state-of-the-race update.)
Luckily, back in 2022, we saw these razor-thin margins coming and worked hard to elect fair-minded Governors and Secretaries of State in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Whatever happens on election night, expect Trump to declare victory and whip his base into a frenzy. Expect subversion attempts by local election deniers. To overcome this, we need to not only win (and be ready for ballot curing, litigation, recounts, etc). We need to win by as wide a margin as possible in as many states as possible.
Whatever happens, we won’t know definitively for days whether we won the election. And then the results have to be certified… I predict I’m going to stress-eat all my kids’ leftover Halloween candy. But seriously: No matter the outcome, it is going to be a time for all of us to stay grounded and alert, and be ready to continue supporting our partners’ work on the ground. In the face of uncertainty, we can be certain of one thing: We are all in this together. Election Day is an inflection point but not the endpoint of our work together.
Hopefully, after all is said and done… we win! We’ll be dancing in the streets! As a poetic touch: We’ll get to inaugurate our first Black woman President on MLK Day.
The biggest question we get from local partners: Where’s the money this cycle?
A few weeks ago, we put out a memo documenting $165 million in budget gaps from our partners in the key states. The good news: Thanks entirely to your support, we’re making a dent in that number (check out the nifty new thermometer on our website!). In a weird paradox, MVP is actually having our most successful grantmaking year ever in 2024. I’m trying to feel happy about that. But the bad news is that many of the other large players in our space have pulled back.
Under the circumstances, our partners are doing a remarkable job. Thanks to our collective support, they are running the largest ground game in history. But the other side is running a much stronger campaign and ground game than last time too. It will be a war of inches. MVP is supporting our partners to do everything they can to make our ground game even bigger and stronger between now and Election Day.
The biggest question we get from donors: Can’t the Harris campaign fill the gaps?
We don’t have a definitive answer to this question. What seems more possible would be for some of the large Super PACs like Future Forward, Priorities USA, and Senate Majority PAC (that have several hundred million dollars) to divert a larger fraction of their budgets from TV and digital ads into the field operations of well-established local voter organizations. Ultimately this is out of our hands, but we’re doing everything in our power to shift this dynamic, both behind the scenes and with every media megaphone we can get (see this great new piece in Newsweek).
Does anyone really believe that if we lose this election, it will be because we didn’t spend enough money on TV and digital ads?
TV and digital are necessary but there are diminishing returns on investment. What makes a concrete, outsized difference is deep, local, relational organizing of exactly the kind MVP supports.
As one very vividly concrete example: LUCHA, an excellent and proven local organization in Arizona that has deep, year-round relationships with voters had planned to knock on 1.1 million doors this year. Due to funding shortfalls, LUCHA had to scale back to 750,000. But even absent optimal levels of funding, MVP’s incredible local partners are reaching out to millions of voters each week. MVP’s State Advisors are in constant touch with our partners. They’re making day-by-day calculations about whether to ramp up or ramp down their canvass programs in the final stretch. They are operating on faith that more late money will come in. MVP is moving money as fast as we can – with almost daily grantmaking. And we’re working to optimize on a weekly basis which partners in which states need the money most, and can use it immediately to reach the greatest number of voters and tip the most consequential battleground races.
See below for snapshots of our partners’ work – it’s not too late to donate or spread the word!
At times like this, I wish we had greater sway with the big Democratic money players. But we don’t. If you happen to, please pass this note along!
With your support, MVP is doing all we can to fill these gaps. Please do whatever you can to spread the word to invest funds where they’re needed most!
25 days – LFGG! (Let’s Fund the Ground Game!)
We look forward to stress-eating Halloween candy… and then hopefully dancing in the streets with you after we win!
Billy Wimsatt, MVP Executive Director
(On behalf of the MVP team)
In This Newsletter:
- You Are Invited: Curb Your Election Anxiety – Join an MVP Zoom Event!
- Updates from the States: Pulling Out All the Stops
- What You Can Do: How to Help MVP Fund the Ground Game!
YOU ARE INVITED
Curb Your Election Anxiety – Join an MVP Zoom Event!
Tuesday, October 22: The Final Push
Join MVP for our final pre-election update on what’s happening on the ground in key states and races across the country! RSVP here »
Final stretch Zoom parties – invite your friends!
MVP volunteers are hard at work organizing Zoom parties to fundraise for local voter organizing around the country. Check them out, RSVP, and bring a friend.
Wednesday, November 6: What Just Happened?!
Join us the day after the election to jump for joy, cry, or bite our nails awaiting results in the company of like-minded Democratic and progressive donors, activists, organizers, and strategists. RSVP here to get it on your calendar early »
UPDATES FROM THE STATES
It’s “GO” Time!
In every key battleground state and race across the country, MVP local partners are pulling out all the stops to create a Blue Wave on November 5th. Here are just a few of the hundreds of updates we’re getting from the field. If you really want to be inspired, click each “Read more” link to see the fuller story:
Chispa AZ mobilizing voters at a clean air rally
In Arizona, Chispa AZ PAC (MVP’s largest climate-focused partner in the state) has knocked on 103,000 doors toward their total 250,000 goal, in their effort to flip the state legislature (by targeting LD9, LD13, and LD23) and the Arizona Corporation Commission (which decides a lot of climate policy) — which will also help win Arizona’s eleven electoral votes for VP Harris and elect Democrat Ruben Gallego to the Senate. Read more »
Screenshot: Atlanta Civic Circle, 9/25/2024
In Georgia, the Georgia Youth Justice Coalition (GYJC) and youth allies organized thousands of students to join a school walkout in the wake of the Apalachee High School shooting, to demand gun safety — and to elect gun safety champions up and down the ballot. Read more »
Progressive Maryland – March for reproductive freedom
In Maryland, thanks in part to MVP’s proactive early investments in our local partners’ strategic earned media and voter contact work, the Senate race has gone from a nail-biting toss-up to a strong “Likely D” seat. Read more »
Michigan United Action
In Michigan, a coalition of MVP partners is leveraging a bold campaign to curb the corrupting influence of money in politics by educating voters in ten competitive house districts about their legislators’ stance on corruption. This is one of many strategies our Michigan partners are driving to win up and down the ballot. Read more »
Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety, canvassing for Senate candidate Dan Osborn
In Nebraska, MVP partners blocked the GOP from adopting a “winner-take-all” system in the Electoral College, which could have cost VP Harris the Presidential election. Now our partners are working to flip a U.S. House seat and a dark-horse Senate race — which could decide control of both chambers. Read more »
Battleground New York – Homepage screenshot
In New York, Battleground New York has assembled the biggest field campaign in modern state history to contact 660,000+ voters in an effort to flip up to four GOP-held House seats and defend two vulnerable Democratic seats. Read more »
Down Home North Carolina – Western NC Recovery Team at work in Boone, 9/30/2024
In North Carolina, Down Home North Carolina has activated its get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation to support communities devastated by Hurricane Helene across Western North Carolina, while continuing to contribute to a coalition-wide goal of knocking 4 million doors across the state. Read more »
Red Wine and Blue – #OHnoYouDont campaign
In Ohio, where Sherrod Brown’s re-election campaign could decide control of the Senate, MVP is working with Ohio Progressive Collaborative and Red Wine & Blue (an organization focused on suburban women) to launch “#OHnoYouDont,” a campaign to galvanize voters to speak out against hate in their community spurred by Senator JD Vance’s lies about Haitian immigrants in Springfield. Read more »
Screenshot from video of One Pennsylvania’s joint canvass launch with other MVP partners
In Pennsylvania, OnePA is on their way to 4.5 million voter contacts by Election Day, toward their objective of making up the margin of victory up and down the ballot. They and others like Pennsylvania Working Families Party, Make the Road Action Pennsylvania, and CASA In Action could be the reason we will be dancing in the streets the day after the election. Read more »
Teamsters Against Trump – Stop the War on Workers rally
Last but not least, a story about Teamsters Against Trump – Back in July, when Teamsters President Sean O’Brien spoke at the RNC, MVP supported a grassroots network within the Teamsters to make an intervention. We made a seed investment in Teamsters Against Trump, which has been organizing the Teamsters’ base of 1.3 million members to oppose Trump and support VP Harris. Since then, they have successfully secured Harris endorsements from almost two dozen local Teamsters unions and joint councils (including in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), representing nearly one million workers — driving an anti-Trump narrative within the Teamsters. MVP loves to make innovative seed grants like this! Learn more »
WHAT YOU CAN DO
How to Help MVP Fund the Ground Game!
With less than a month to go, the single most important thing any of us can do is to fund the ground game.
Here’s how:
- Make your biggest investment ever. Give online or offline. How much? Go for that “No Regrets” number that will let you know you did absolutely everything in your power to save democracy, defend reproductive freedom, restore our climate, protect our kids from gun violence, and leave a legacy we can all be proud of.
(Wondering if “late money” is still helpful? Unequivocally yes! Late money helps groups turn out every last vote and ensure every vote counts, not to mention helping them be ready for whatever is next. Read more here.)
- Spread the word about the urgent need to #FundTheGroundGame. We’ve just launched our new Social Media Toolkit, complete with sample messages, graphics, and simple steps to record a DIY video. Spread the word »
- Invite a friend to an upcoming MVP Zoom fundraiser. All across the country, MVP supporters are holding Zoom parties to spread the word about MVP. They really are the perfect place for new folks to hear the “MVP 101” — and for longtime supporters to get an inspiring refresher. See upcoming events »
Lastly, if you’re looking for the best ways to volunteer to get out the vote, here are our top recommendations.
Thank you for being an MVP donor and supporter, and for everything you do each and every day to make this world a more kind, loving, inclusive, and fair place.
Go team!!
