Could the Presidency and Congress All Come Down to… Nebraska?!

Wait, Nebraska is a Swing State?

When most people think about pivotal battleground states, they don’t often think about Nebraska. In 2024, that has changed in a big way — and thankfully, MVP was way ahead of the game.

Nebraska is one of only two states (the other being Maine) that splits its electoral votes, using the congressional district method. Out of Nebraska’s three congressional districts, CD-1 and CD-3 are solidly Republican, and CD-2 — the Omaha metropolitan area — is more of a swing district, going blue in 2008 and 2020, and red in 2012 and 2016. This year, it is leaning towards Harris-Walz. 

As a result, one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes constitutes a likely “blue dot” in an otherwise red-leaning state. If the election were held today, the state would very likely apportion their electoral votes as: 4 for Trump, 1 for Harris.

Given the neck-and-neck battleground polling in this year’s Presidential race, this “blue dot” has taken on an incredibly outsized significance.

New York Magazine explains it well:

If Kamala Harris wins the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin but loses all the remaining swing states, she would be stuck at 269 electoral votes — one shy of victory. This means that the lone vote from the Omaha area could decide the presidency. 

The GOP Attempt to Squash the Blue Dot

MVP is a proud long-term funder in Nebraska, where organizing has steadily grown stronger and has borne fruit on many levels this year. In 2022, with support from our local partner She’s Electable, we helped save Democrats’ state filibuster power by electing the first openly gay man to the unicameral legislature by just 83 votes. 

Three weeks ago, we got a call that Nebraska’s “Blue Dot” was in danger. 

Trump, along with the Republican governor and the national Republican party, were pushing to switch Nebraska to a “winner-take-all” system in the Electoral College.

MVP responded immediately, and was the first national funder to support an intensive lobbying effort to save the Blue Dot. The New York Times published a story: “How One Man’s Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election.”

A single Republican state senator from Omaha, Mike McDonnell, has so far stood firm against a push by former President Donald J. Trump, national Republicans and the Nebraska G.O.P. to change Nebraska from a state that divides its electoral votes by congressional district to one that awards all of them to the statewide winner. 

If Mr. McDonnell buckles, two other Republican senators in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature who have also not yet committed to changing Nebraska’s system are likely to follow his lead, according to a number of Republicans and Democrats involved in the discussions going on at the State Capitol.

The tumbling dominoes would almost certainly give the single electoral vote of Omaha and its suburbs, which Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win, to Mr. Trump.

Two days later, thanks to intensive lobbying by our local partners, we saw a different headline: “Key Nebraska Republican Rejects Trump’s Push to Shake Up Electoral Map.”

The state legislator, Mike McDonnell, a Democrat turned Republican from Omaha, said that he would not agree to change Nebraska’s 32-year tradition of awarding three of the state’s five electoral votes by congressional district to a winner-take-all system based on the statewide popular vote, bucking calls from Nebraska’s governor and its congressional delegation to help Mr. Trump.

Potential Senate & House Pickups

Beyond quickly mobilizing to help stop the GOP’s Presidential power grab, MVP’s steady funding of the Nebraska progressive “state ecosystem” has helped put us within striking distance of seizing another pivotal opportunity this year: Winning a dark-horse U.S. Senate race, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 2006.

In a race that one in-state political scientist is calling “more competitive than it should be,” Independent Dan Osborn, a labor leader who supports abortion rights and led a 2021 strike against Kellogg’s, is polling well within the margin of error directly behind Republican incumbent Deb Fischer.

MVP is supporting our local partner Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety in getting out the vote for this race, which, if we win, could help Democrats retain control of the Senate — despite one of the most unfavorable electoral maps in years.

And on top of that, MVP partners are now slightly favored to pick up the Omaha-area U.S. House seat where Democrat Tony Vargas is challenging a tough Republican incumbent, Don Bacon. MVP has been investing in organizing in this district since 2018.

Lastly, MVP is supporting local partners Nebraska Appleseed Action Fund and Second House Collaborative to pass an abortion rights initiative as well as a paid sick leave initiative.