January 30, 2024

State of the Race: 2016 All Over Again?

Lukewarm enthusiasm on the Democratic side. A seemingly unstoppable Trump nomination. Is this 2016 all over again? Here is MVP’s analysis in a nutshell.
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Ignore the polls. Ignore the pundits. Give big + give early to local organizers in swing states instead!

Lukewarm enthusiasm on the Democratic side. A seemingly unstoppable Trump nomination. Is this 2016 all over again?

Here is MVP’s analysis in a nutshell: 

Ignore the polls. Ignore the pundits. The 2024 elections are in our hands.

Thanks to the Electoral College and record levels of partisan polarization, just a few thousand votes in a few states will likely separate the Nightmare Scenario (a Trump/MAGA takeover) from the Amazing Scenario: A Democratic White House and Congress with the votes to enact the most progressive legislation in decades.

Aside from likely razor-thin margins, 2024 is not the same as 2016. We have won not one, not two, but three elections (counting November 2023) since 2020. We are facing very real challenges this year — but we are also bringing momentum to those challenges.

In these next crucial months, we’re going to be hearing a lot of familiar fear-mongering, over-confident prognosticating, and more “urgent appeals” to panic-donate and rage-donate than we’ll be able to count. 

Our advice? Just tune it out. All of it.

There’s no room for despair OR complacency this year — only deliberate, strategic action. 

There’s a path forward, and it’s simple: 

  1. Target the battlegrounds. 
  2. Invest in local organizing. (MVP makes it easy.)
  3. Do it now, not months from now.

Here are a few bite-sized reads:

For MVP’s full analysis, read our new election memo.

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