Sun Belt is back in play. MVP has kept the funding steady!

After Biden’s poor debate performance, polls showed the path to victory had “all but vanished”.

Trump had a growing lead in four key “Sun Belt” states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — and he was even narrowing Biden’s lead in reliably blue states like Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia.

Essentially, by early July, Biden had just one path to 270 electoral votes: The three “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If he lost a single one of these, the election would be over.

A Transformed Race

Fast-forward to mid-August, and polling shows a “transformed race.” VP Harris has put all four Sun Belt battleground states back in play — largely thanks to women and younger voters — giving her multiple paths to victory and finally making the race truly, once again, a dead heat toss-up.

Screenshot: The New York Times, 8/17/2024 – “Kamala Harris Puts Four Sun Belt States Back in Play”

This means Harris could get to 270 by winning various combinations of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona – and if she wins North Carolina, it is likely game over for Trump.

MVP Has Held Steady in the Sun Belt

When many Democratic funders had all but given up on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, MVP held steady in our long-term investment in these states.

Thanks to donors’ support, we have been able to keep crucial funding flowing to locally-based voter organizing groups in all four Sun Belt battlegrounds (AND all three Blue Wall states) through all the twists and turns of this unprecedented election cycle.

This in turn has enabled our local partners to keep hiring canvassers, organizing volunteers, knocking doors, holding phone banks, running digital outreach, and setting the stage to turn out the exact voters we need — youth, voters of color, immigrant voters, LGBTQ+ voters, and others — to elect Democrats up and down the ballot this November.

MVP Partners in the Sun Belt

Here is a sampling of the voter organizing groups we are supporting across the Sun Belt (see our State Plans for more).

Arizona

In Arizona, we can win the state’s 11 electoral votes, elect Democrat Ruben Gallego to the U.S. Senate, net two U.S. House seats, gain a state trifecta by flipping the State House and Senate, pass the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative, and more.

Photo: Our Voice, Our Vote

• Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) is a power-building, advocacy, and electoral organization, comprised of Latine and immigrant members. In 2024, LUCHA seeks to register over ten thousand new voters and make one million partisan voter contact attempts.
• Our Voice, Our Vote (OVOV) is a member-led organization advocating on the most pressing issues for Black, Latine, and youth communities. In 2024, OVOV seeks to register 2,500 voters and making 1,635,000 contacts to Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC) voters, youth of color, newly registered Democrats, and Independents.
• Rural Arizona Action (RAZA) works to build an active, sustainable, and progressive voting bloc in rural Arizona. In 2024, RAZA plans to mobilize 500,000 voters in nine rural counties.

Georgia

In Georgia, we can win the state’s 16 electoral votes and make significant gains in the State House and Senate, along the way to flipping both chambers by 2030.

Photo: Georgia Working Families Party

• Asian American Advocacy Fund (AAAF) is a building a politically conscious, engaged, and progressive Asian American base in Georgia. In 2024, AAAF plans to knock 100,000 doors and make 1,000,000 phone calls, in addition to direct mail, ethnic media, digital outreach, voter education, relational organizing, and events.
• Black Male Initiative Fund (BMI Fund) empowers Black men through the use of direct action, advocacy, and grassroots organizing. In 2020 and 2022, BMI Fund held one-third of Georgia’s independent grassroots field operations. In 2024, they will target 507,831 Black men, women, and young people, making 100,000 phone calls and one million door knocks on 500,000 doors.
• Georgia Working Families Party (WFP) organizes year-round and works to elect candidates committed to economic, racial, social, gender, and environmental justice. In 2024, Georgia WFP will make 500,000 doors knocks and 500,000 phone calls, send 5 million texts, and deliver relational and persuasion mail to 15,000 households.
• GLAHR Action Network and Mijente are teaming up to mobilize Latinx, Black, and LGBTQ people for the 2024 election through a program that includes door knocking, phone and text outreach, digital engagement, and local candidate town halls. They aim to send 250,000 texts, target 200,000 voters through door-to-door canvassing.

Nevada

In Nevada, we can win the state’s six electoral votes, re-elect Senator Jacky Rosen to the U.S. Senate, defend Democrats’ 3-1 House delegation majority, hold Dems’ supermajority in the State Assembly; win a supermajority in the State Senate; and win the Nevada Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment.

Photo: One APIA Nevada

• Make the Road Action Nevada is a Latine & immigrant organization that will complete 87,850 voter conversations in 2024, engaging voters by phone, doors, text, and digital, all in Spanish and English. 
• One APIA runs multilingual voter canvass, phone bank, mail, and digital operations, and is the strongest voter engagement operation reaching Nevada’s large and growing AAPI community. In 2024, One APIA will make 75,000 voter contact attempts to voters in Congressional District 3 and the top ten AANHPI State Assembly and Senate races.
• UNITE HERE is a national hospitality workers union that was key to turning Nevada blue for Obama in 2008 and 2012, Clinton in 2016 (the only battleground Trump lost), and Biden in 2020. In 2024 they will knock on 750,000 doors in Las Vegas and Reno, targeting working-class and people of color.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, we can win the state’s sixteen electoral votes, build lasting infrastructure to flip both GOP-held U.S. Senate seats in 2026 and 2028, elect Democrat Josh Stein to the open Governor’s seat, break the GOP supermajority in the state legislature, and more.

Photo: Down Home North Carolina

• A. Philip Randolph Educational Fund (APREF) is a Black-led, member-based organization with 32 chapters across the state. In 2024, they will run a large-scale voter contact program primarily focused on Black voters, including canvassing, phone, text, mail, and digital. The group aims to activate 2,000 volunteers and attempt 700,000 conversations with voters.
• Carolina Federation is a member-led organization focused on six diverse urban and suburban counties – Durham, Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenburg, Cumberland, and New Hanover. They will knock on 600,000 doors in 2024 for GOTV mobilization, as well as organizing chapters, holding community conversations, and organizing marches to the polls.
• Down Home North Carolina is a statewide membership organization that organizes a multi-racial, cross-class base in rural areas and small towns. In 2024, Down Home plans to organize across 20 rural counties to knock 522,991 doors. Down Home will also fight to win in four potential pickup state House races where Democrats have been losing by roughly 1,000 votes or less.

No Shortcuts to Long-Term Power

In some cases, we have heard from our local partners that MVP is literally the only funder currently keeping them from needing to shut down their political electoral operations. In a race this close with the stakes so high, this should serve as a wake-up call to all Democratic donors and funders: The dollars we give (or don’t give) now to local voter organizing could seal the outcome of the November elections.

The only way to build long-term political power is to expand the map — and we can only do that through steady, sustained investment in grassroots voter organizing infrastructure, year-round, year after year.

Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina are ALL within our grasp to transform into reliable, progressive majorities at the federal level and down-ballot. Every dollar we invest now sets the stage for flipping these states sooner than we otherwise could — whether it happens in 2024, 2026, 2028, or 2030.

If we can reliably win the Sun Belt, it would create an electoral lock on the Presidency. Map generated at 270toWin.com.

If we want political power that lasts, there are no shortcuts. The equation is simple: 

• More sustained funding = more year-round voter organizing. 
• More organizing = wider electoral map. 
• Wider map = more electoral wins. 
• More wins = faster progress to the world we want to see.

Turning Vibes Into Votes

Over the last month, we’ve seen a surge in enthusiasm and momentum on the Democratic side. Now we need to make sure that translates into unprecedented funding for the local, grassroots groups doing the pivotal work of turning out the voters that will decide this race.

Right now, we estimate a total gap of $200 million in partisan dollars across the “Big Nine” Battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Ohio and Montana where the U.S. Senate races will determine the balance of power in that chamber. Grassroots groups are ready to scale up their voter mobilization operations. All we need is the investment to unlock their full potential.

We all are counting on our local partners to carry us over the finish line this fall — and they are counting on us to give them the resources they need to do it.

Join us in turning vibes into votes!