The consequences of this Supreme Court decision have been swift and devastating for communities nationwide. This is especially true for BIPOC, low-income, rural, and LGBTQ+ communities who already face disproportionate barriers to health care. We know that abortion bans don’t stop abortions – they stop safe ones.
Generations before us fought tirelessly to gain and protect the rights we have today. We will remain absolutely dedicated to supporting the types of grassroots organizing that have made so many of our freedoms possible.
Though we are devastated, we will fight back.
MVP Strategy
MVP made this guide to share the state of play in our Tier 1 (and a few Tier 2) states, and the next steps for policy and electoral work in our fight to protect and increase access to reproductive rights and healthcare.
The key strategies/opportunities outlined below were developed by MVP state advisors in our tier 1 and tier 2 states.
Commonalities Among/Across States
The following provides a quick overview of commonalities among many of the states we are working in. These commonalities are rooted in our overall strategy for advancing state-based electoral wins as one of the benchmarks for building progressive power and protecting against assaults on our rights, including, but not limited to, abortion.
In many of our prioritized states, the focus is to win key elections in order to create backstops to hold against further attacks by the Right.
- Battleground states where Ds can win/hold a legislative body/office in November, creating a back-stop to bad future policy - including, but not limited to, abortion.
- Pennsylvania
- Georgia
- Arizona
- North Carolina (looking to prevent R supermajority in Legislature)
- States with Supreme Court or Attorney General races that can change the balance of power on various issues, including, but not limited to, abortion.
- States where there is the opportunity, with additional down-ballot gains, to advance proactive policy protecting reproductive health
Arizona
State context: In April, the Republican trifecta government in Arizona passed SB-1164, which bans abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy. A six-week ban — or an outright ban — could go into effect in response to the anticipated Supreme Court decision if Republicans maintain unified control. Breaking the Republican trifecta in the state would ultimately help stop bad reproductive justice policy. The Arizona state legislature could pass a bill banning abortion at 6 weeks or even a complete abortion ban outright. Given the likely timing for the end of the legislative session, doing so in 2022 would probably require Governor Doug Ducey to call a special session. If a 6 week ban or an outright ban is not passed in 2022, it will likely be a top priority for the legislature and governor in 2023, if Republicans win unified control.
Next steps: To protect abortion rights in Arizona, Democrats will need to win the governor’s race and/or tie one of the chambers of the state legislature (we are currently one seat short of a tie in both chambers) in order to prevent a 6 week ban or similar laws from being passed in early 2023. Democrats also have a shot at winning the county attorney’s race in Maricopa County, where 62% of Arizonans live, protecting women and abortion providers in the Phoenix area from being prosecuted.
Immediate opportunity: Invest in AZ Wins (c4) to expand grassroots organizing and voter engagement in key swing districts in advance of November.
Florida
State context: Last session, conservatives passed a 15-week abortion ban, which was immediately challenged in the courts due to Florida’s state constitutional right to privacy. This will be an important test for the conservative-held court (6-1). Governor DeSantis will likely win the Governor’s race and the state will continue its Republican trifecta post-2022.
Next steps: Expand communications and field efforts on the ground.
Immediate opportunity: Expand field efforts at Florida for All or invest in Planned Parenthood’s existing field program.
Georgia
State context: Georgia law currently bans abortions at 20 weeks, although the state passed the Living Infants Fairness and Equality (LIFE) Act in 2019, banning them at 6 weeks. This “heartbeat bill” was struck down in 2020 due to non-compliance with Roe. Now that Dobbs has formally overturned Roe, the 11th Circuit is free to lift its ban. Georgia's Attorney General Chris Carr has asked the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to let the state's law take effect, triggering a process that will unfold over the coming weeks. Governor Kemp may also call a special session to enable the Georgia Legislature to pass more restrictive laws, but it is highly possible that he will punt it until the 2023 session for electoral purposes.
Next steps: This is a key moment to engage Georgia’s new voter base — young adults and BIPOC communities — about November’s election and continue building power and movement around protecting reproductive freedom and care in Georgia. Grassroots organizations have built capacity in the field, but expanding field canvasses, relational organizing, phone and text banking, and digital campaigns will be critical for winning key state-wide races and down-ballot to pick up key seats in the Georgia House and Senate, as well blocking a super majority. Organizing at the local level will also be important as many of our groups are working to push prosecutors to not criminalize people for getting abortions.
Immediate opportunity: Provide funding to reproductive justice grassroots organizations to mobilize voters around abortion justice and access to win key races across Georgia. Lead campaigns pushing existing District Attorneys to pledge not to prosecute abortion-related cases. MVP’s priority Georgia reproductive rights group is New Georgia Project Action Fund.
Kentucky
State context: Abortion rights in Kentucky are under threat on two fronts this fall. In August, a state appeals court lifted a temporary injunction, allowing two 2019 abortion bans to go into effect, immediately halting abortion care in the state. The Kentucky Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a challenge to the constitutionality of these bans starting on November 15, 2022, just after the election. At the same time, Kentuckians will have the opportunity to vote on a Constitutional Amendment on November 8, which would amend the Constitution to explicitly state that it does not protect or establish a right to abortion. The measure is very similar to the one that was defeated earlier this year in Kansas. Additionally, 4 of 7 Supreme Court justices are up for reelection this November as well. In Northern Kentucky, the author of the abortion ballot measure is running against a justice who has indicating her willingness to listen to the will of the voters on this issue.
Next steps: To protect abortion rights in Kentucky, we need to defeat the abortion ballot measure and elect as many sympathetic Supreme Court justices as possible this fall.
Immediate opportunity: Invest in Protect Kentucky Access (C4), which has the successful campaign manager and field director from the defeat of the Kansas measure on board, to defeat Kentucky's abortion measure and support the Commonwealth Alliance Donor Table to invest in judicial races IEs.
Michigan
State context: Michigan has an anti-abortion law on the books, but it hasn’t had a practical effect since abortion was legalized nationwide. With the fall of Roe, Michigan’s trigger law takes effect, but the Attorney General and seven Democratic prosecutors have publicly vowed not to enforce the ban. The Attorney General is up for election this year, as well as two Supreme Court seats that will determine the balance of power in that body. There are two active lawsuits right now. The ACLU won a preliminary injunction that prohibits anyone from enforcing the ban and they want a permanent injunction. Republican legislators have filed a motion to intervene, and the Governor is asking the State Supreme Court to take up her case immediately.
Grassroots groups submitted signatures for a ballot initiative to appear on the November ballot in support of reproductive freedom. The signatures are currently in the process of being validated.
Next steps: Continue supporting the ongoing ballot measure work. On the Attorney General and Supreme Court front, most partners will run these campaigns as part of a larger down-ballot effort stemming from top of the ticket work.
Immediate opportunity: Invest in Detroit Action, Pontiac Policy Action Fund, MI People’s Campaign, and MI Asian-American Progressives to expand voter outreach programs, with a focus on voters of color and young adults. Invest in Gender Justice Action, which is organizing to launch a base-building and civic engagement campaign engaging BIPOC and young voters in the fall in flippable State Senate districts. They are seeking support for their field campaign.
Minnesota
State context: Minnesota is the only state in the upper Midwest that will be providing abortion services. South Dakota and Wisconsin have already halted all abortions, and North Dakota and Iowa may follow suit. The only abortion provider in North Dakota just moved 1/2 mile from Fargo into Moorhead, MN. Minnesota has a legal decision (the state’s own version of Roe) which protects reproductive rights but could be subject to a legal assault at the federal level. And if Republicans were to retake power in the state, they will pass legislation to outlaw abortion.
Next steps: We need to win 3 more State Senate seats to gain trifecta power for Democracts in Minnesota and pass legislation that protects abortion rights. With redistricting, this means winning 5 of 9 of the most competitive State Senate races. The good news is that, for the first time ever, ALL candidates running for State Senate in Minnesota are pro-choice. This was not true even in 2020. We also must hold the Minnesota State House, which is currently rated a toss-up. Those seats are all nested within the State Senate districts.
Immediate opportunity: To compete in the swing districts, expanded field organizing is needed with Faith in Minnesota, MN Land Stewardship Action Fund and UNIDOS-MN, recognizing that while these organizations are not working specifically on reproductive justice, they are well-positioned to advance Democratic candidates in these areas. Gender Justice Action, a newly formed 501c4, is well positioned to take on women’s health-related voter engagement work.
North Carolina
State context: North Carolina is the only state in the Southeast where pregnant people can still access an abortion at any time. However, this is protected only by a narrow margin in the state House and Senate. If Republicans gain a supermajority in both chambers, they will have the ability to override the Governor’s veto in 2023 and 2024. In the North Carolina Senate, there are four very competitive districts, and there are 15 competitive districts in the North Carolina House.
Next steps: Field partners are mobilizing canvass programs to engage voters, particularly BIPOC communities and young adults, in these competitive districts, with the goal of preserving a large enough minority to thwart veto override power. Partners are also mobilizing specifically around the Supreme Court races, where majority control will be up for contention in November.
Immediate opportunity: Invest in Carolina Federation and Emancipate Votes to advance voter contact programs specifically for the Supreme Court races. Invest in expanded grassroots organizing and voter contact in key swing districts with existing partners, including Down Home NC, Emancipate Votes, and Ignite Action Fund.
Pennsylvania
State context: In Pennsylvania, abortion is currently legal up to 24 weeks, but the fate of abortion access is in the hands of voters in the upcoming Governor’s race. The highly competitive Governor’s race includes a Republican candidate who has promised to end abortion for all Pennsylvanians if elected. Winning the Governor’s race in Pennsylvania will be critical to act as a backstop beyond 2022 and heading towards 2024 for abortion and other critical issues.
At the same time, Republican legislators are looking at a veto work-around to end abortion access. In Pennsylvania, the Legislature can put a question on the ballot after it has passed both chambers in two consecutive sessions. We anticipate the Republican-held Legislature will pass abortion restrictions in 2022 and again in 2023, allowing it to go to for a popular vote on the ballot in the 2023 primary or general election.
Next steps: Significant grassroots organizing efforts will be needed to prevent the abortion ballot question from passing on the 2023 ballot. Continued expansion of voter outreach and education programs to key constituencies, particularly BIPOC communities in large cities and smaller ones, will be key to winning the 2022 election.
Immediate opportunity: Invest in continued and expanded voter outreach and education, with a focus on Black women. Support continued base building efforts in large cities with 1Hood Power, 215 People’s Alliance, and One PA, and support continued base building in smaller cities with Democratic electorates that need additional turn-out support through Make the Road, PA Stands Up, POWER Action Fund, CASA, and PA United.
Texas
State context: Texas is one of 13 states that has "trigger bans" in place, meaning that abortion will almost immediately be banned with Roe no longer in effect. Five Texas district attorneys — from Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Nueces, and Fort Bend counties — have publicly promised that they will not pursue abortion-related criminal charges. State partners are clear that this is connected to and should continuously be linked to the fight against racism and criminalization of marginalized people.
Next steps: Partners and coalitions are continuing to work to take on this fight on different fronts, through community education and relationship building, at the polls, in the streets, and preparing for the state legislature next year. Eyes are on the Attorney General and State House races in Texas. The Democratic candidate for Attorney General has been an advocate for reproductive justice and has indicated she won’t prosecute abortion-related cases. From a service perspective, groups are currently aligning around how to provide support for abortion services to Texans needing to access to abortions in other states.
Immediate opportunity: TX Freedom Network/TX Rising Action is actively integrating repro justice into advocacy and vote work through their c4.