From Jeffrey Lichtenstein, Director of Strategic Advancement at One Pennsylvania:

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Everyone is watching Pennsylvania right now, but it can be hard to see what is really going on, so we want to share our view from the ground on E-Day minus one. Your incredible financial support has helped One PA lay the groundwork to be ready for this week—thank you.

Pennsylvania is not a flashy place. We’re used to flying under the radar. We also have the most electoral votes of all the swing states, and we hold up the mail-in ballot count until the polls close on Election Day. Whether we like it or not, we are flooded with national attention every four years. With unprecedented stakes in play, we’ve become a container for the anxieties of both parties. At a recent rally, Trump declared, “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing.” On SNL this weekend, when Harris impersonator Maya Rudolf pledged her vote to the Vice President, Harris herself quipped, “Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania?”

One Pennsylvania – Canvasser knocking on a door

Counting every vote in PA: What comes after 2020?

As a pivotal electoral state, Pennsylvania’s mail-in voting comes under intense scrutiny. The PA General Assembly, under Republican control for over a decade until the House flipped in 2022, has long sought to reverse the decades-long work of organizers and activists to expand voting access for BIPOC, working-class, returning citizen, and disabled voters—all of whom benefit from mail-in voting and are also more likely to be underserved. 

In 2020, Pennsylvania held the world captive for several days curing and counting the mail-in ballots that would determine the election. We were navigating new territory in a trial by fire: the state’s first election with universal mail-in ballot access, a tenfold increase in vote-by-mail enrollment during a pre-vaccine pandemic year, and untested ballot disqualification standards. As the polls closed, election boards and organizers alike—including OnePA staff—jumped into rapid-response mode to cure ballots with technical errors and protect provisional ballots. Meanwhile, election denialism was setting in before the day was done.

Thanks to the many improvements passed by the PA General Assembly despite Republican resistance, as well as faster machines for processing and counting, we are much better prepared now. Key to these changes is Act 88, which allocated funds to counties to support elections on the condition that they work around the clock to count ballots until they are done. Here’s a peek at how mail-in ballots are processed (and a reassuring reminder about the safeguards on voting machines that ensure the integrity of in-person voting). 

The PA counties coming under right-wing fire about voting irregularities are all examples of how the system is working, when you look past the misinformation: elections offices have been “caught” implementing their built-in screening processes to ensure all voter registrations are valid (with no actual ballots involved in any of these cases), and their DAs are prepared to press criminal charges if any intentionally fraudulent behavior is found. 

One PA’s role in the ground game.

While these infrastructural improvements are encouraging, we know we cannot and should not rely solely on electoral institutions to ensure safe and inclusive elections. We have been preparing for this moment, and we are ready. 

Facing down specious attempts to purge voters from registration rolls, One PA’s canvassers registered 27,271 voters in advance of the Oct. 21 deadline. We have prioritized vote-by-mail education and enrollment for months. We posted up at Satellite Election Offices to help voters check for errors on ballot envelopes. This year, thanks in part to your generous support, we strategized to keep part of our seasonal team on staff through the post-election gauntlet. An expanded budget also means we are all prepared to take action not just through election day, but until December 11 when Governor Josh Shapiro is required to certify PA’s election results. 

With your support, One PA is running our most ambitious ground game to date:

• We have knocked 666,508 doors and made 4,247,996 calls as of yesterday, resulting in 237,829 total conversations.
• We are sending 5.9 million texts and keeping our social media flowing, boosted by the Megaphone digital organizing program coordinated by Commonwealth Communications. Check out One PA Board Vice Chair Paulette Whitefield share what’s at stake in this election, in this Stand Up America interview. 
• We have committed 1,499 voters to vote tripling thus far—texting three friends urging them to vote—with a potential turnout reach of 4,497. This empirically-based social pressure tactic was shown to increase voter turnout by 8.3%, far exceeding traditional turnout methods.
• We are currently signing up folks for rides to the polls, and we are hosting and co-hosting 18 Party at the Polls sites at voting locations to keep energy and visibility high regardless of wait times or other pressures. One study showed that in 2016, Black folks waited 27% longer in lines to vote and were 74% more likely to spend more than 30 minutes at their polling place. 

One PA is determined to counter the myriad ways in which the voices of Black and Brown voters are suppressed in governance and civic life. Some good news today from The Inquirer is that despite a potentially groundbreaking turnout, “For the most part, election officials have said they don’t expect longer lines on Nov. 5 as a result of higher in-person turnout.”

One Pennsylvania organizers strategizing their next moves

GOTV today. Organizing always.

We are working in partnership with the Center for Popular Democracy to mobilize our substantial organizing base—the heart of our year-round power-building work—in new and creative ways. Sponsored by the We Rent We Vote project, we made over 2 million calls through a phone bank of renters calling other renters to electoralize the high-priority issue of housing justice. We have also built and trained a team of 42 Election Captains (and growing!) through the Guardians of Democracy program, who have collectively knocked 9,860 doors and held 2,846 deep organizing conversations with their own neighbors as of yesterday, using a relational organizing model to build political agency at the hyperlocal level. This 29% conversation rate is well above the average rates for door-to-door canvassing, the result of a philosophy of neighbors organizing neighbors.

The defining strategy of One PA’s theory of change is to build long-term, localized organizing relationships to form a seasoned base that produces real democratic governing power. We know that disinvestment in and disconnection from Black voters, along with a lack of results for working-class Black communities, have led to declining voter turnout—now made worse by targeted right-wing interference. If elections don’t deliver meaningful change for Black communities and we only show up at election time, we risk losing everything. 

There is a popular media narrative that paints Black men as uniquely sexist and anti-Harris, but our experience contradicts this. Our canvassing data currently shows a modest 3% difference between the support of Black women and Black men for Harris—a smaller gap than we saw in 2020 exit polls for Biden—and these numbers match the most recent polls. Still, we are fighting for every vote, and we know that credible messengers organizing from within Black working-class communities offer our best hope for connecting and building power. 

“My favorite thing about this job is moving young Black men. Little bits of misinformation are adding up confusing people. People think Trump is their friend, but they are wrong. People talk about how ‘Kamala put all those people in jail’ and I have found it’s really useful to respond by saying, ‘Trump wants to give every cop everywhere immunity. It would be free rein on our community.’ And that moves people. I work to flip at least one Trump voter every day, and that makes my day.” —Shakeem “Breeze” Washington, Core Canvass leader, 11/1/2024

We keep us safe.

This moment is no exception to the historical pattern of backlash that occurs when Black voters find their voice in American democracy. To those of you who have expressed concerns about potential political violence on Election Day in such a heavily contested state: we have been preparing to keep our folks and our communities safe for some time. 

• Our Election Captains will anchor our presence at polling places in the communities where we organize. Each of them will be carrying a de-escalation handbook and received training, tips, and tricks to manage safety and security. 
• Several key staff took more in-depth safety and de-escalation trainings, and our leadership has focused on scenario planning to anticipate risks. 
• We are plugged into the local ecosystem’s rapid-response hotline system, and all Election Captains are prepared to coordinate with dispatch.
• Our Parties at the Polls are designed to bring a celebratory presence to key polling places to drown out intimidation and show solidarity. We are prepared for the worst, and hoping for the best. 

In our pre-GOTV staff meeting, One PA’s Lead Democracy Coordinator Nydea Graves captured the charged spirit of this moment regardless of the presidential outcome: “I’m scared, truly scared, of what will happen if Trump wins. But I am not tired. I’m not burnt out. I’m prepared to go as hard as I can during GOTV to win, and I’m prepared for the long fight ahead of us. I have been burnt out before—I’m not now.”

Over the 20 days before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris will have made five visits to greater Philadelphia—in one case, barnstorming across West Philly all day just blocks away from one of our Vote Early block parties. Michelle and Barack Obama each hosted celebrity-studded campaign events here over the last week. The Harris-Trump debate was held at the Constitution Center in Old City, and the Harris campaign’s culminating concert and rally will take over our Benjamin Franklin Parkway tonight, concluding her historic run on the famous Rocky steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art. With so much attention on our turf, we are moving with informed caution. Whether you are here with us in the center of the storm or looking on from elsewhere feeling your fate bound up with ours, know that we are leaving it all on the line. If the birthplace of American democracy ends up serving as its last line of defense, we are here, holding it down, undaunted.

What the polls are, and are not, telling us.

We’re sure you, like many of us, have been learning more about polling methodology than you ever thought you’d have to. We’re clear about a few things at One PA. First, no matter how we slice it, the race is close. At a joint canvass launch yesterday with our fantastic partners Make The Road PA, APIPA, and Working Families Party, Maurice Mitchell of WFP affirmed that although the race is within the margin of error, this means “it is within the margin of organizing.” We know this is true, even with one day left. 

At One PA, our rate of identified Harris supporters has been climbing over the last two weeks, from 84% to 87%, and now at 90%. We’re seeing more undecided voters breaking for Harris every single day. Because One PA’s role is to provide civic support to voters who are typically left out by the democratic process, many of our positive IDs are infrequent voters who still need all the support we can provide to ensure they can make it out to vote tomorrow. This is what the margin of organizing looks like in this momentous election.

We know that outcomes as close as the polls are predicting are highly unlikely. What’s more likely is that the polls are wrong by about 1-2% in one direction or the other, belying broader trends that will have significant consequences either way. We are ready for day one after either result is confirmed: to protect and defend the people’s voted choice, or to protect and defend the gains of the 20th century. 

We are so grateful for your support this year. Thank you for making One PA’s efforts possible. Make sure you get out and vote. Help your neighbors to vote. Text three people right now and make sure they vote. Stay safe, and we’ll see you the day after tomorrow.

In solidarity,

Jeffrey Lichtenstein
Director of Strategic Advancement 
ONE PENNSYLVANIA

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Inspired? Join our post-election briefing!

If you’re inspired by this work, RSVP for our post-election briefing Wednesday (3pm ET // Noon PT) for analysis of the results, what we’re hearing on the ground, and where we go from here.