Was 2024 a fluke or a full-blown political realignment?

We should take our 2024 losses seriously, if not treat them hyperbolically. We are in a new political era. We need to question our assumptions and adapt our approaches. In terms of warning signs:

• The Democratic base has been eroding for several cycles. Working-class voters and voters of color have been drifting toward the GOP for over a decade. In the 2024 cycle, Harris also lost ground among young voters and union households.

• Trump won with many lower-income voters. Overall, he won voters with a total 2023 family income under $100,000 by 51% to 47% (though Harris won with households under $30,000).

• As trust in institutions plummets, Dems have come to represent the status quo. Meanwhile, Trump has branded himself the ultimate disruptor. As strategist Anat Shenker-Osorio put it, “Democrats cannot be running as the protectors of norms and institutions, and yes, that includes democracy, because democracy never bought anyone dinner.” 

• The national media ecosystem has changed and there’s no going back. If we don’t change with it, we may find ourselves communicating to an ever-shrinking slice of the electorate.

However, there are important caveats, silver linings, and opportunities as well:

• 2024 was more a marginal victory than a landslide. Yes, we lost. Still, Trump won less than 50% of the popular vote by under 1.5% – the third smallest margin since 1888.
• The data suggests a “vote of no confidence in Democrats” vs. an embrace of Trump. Relative to 2020, Harris lost far more votes than Trump gained, with the biggest drops coming from “safe states” where there was less incentive to vote. We can’t stress it enough: The couch won.
• A racial realignment may be underway, but it may not affect our national political trajectory. Yes, the GOP is making modest gains with voters of color; but this is happening in the context of a broader “ideological sorting” in which liberals and conservatives across race and ethnicity are polarizing toward the Democratic and Republican parties respectively. The result will likely be “two parties operating essentially at parity” – i.e., close elections for the foreseeable future.
• In the 2024 House elections, Democrats gained a seat. This suggests the importance of candidate quality and locally tailored messaging, as well as the critical role of the year-round organizing by MVP’s local partner organizations. MVP partners mobilized voters in all seven districts Democrats flipped and in almost every competitive district. (Sneak peek: MVP is helping to organize a movement-wide effort to win the House in 2026 by scaling up local organizing in every competitive district. Stay tuned…)

Ultimately, the future is unwritten. Remember George W. Bush’s resounding victory over John Kerry in 2004, which was supposed to usher in a “permanent governing majority” for the GOP? Four years later in 2008, we elected Obama and a Democratic trifecta. What we do now matters. Buckle up!