Pennsylvania: How We Win

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2024 Electoral Goals

  • Presidency: Win Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
  • U.S. Senate: Re-elect Senator Bob Casey. 
  • U.S. House: Expand the House delegation majority by defending Matt Cartwright’s (PA-08) and Susan Wild’s (PA-07) seats, and flipping Scott Perry’s seat (PA-10). 
  • Governorship: Not up for election until 2026.
  • Legislature: Protect the State House majority and flip three State Senate seats (SD-15, SD-37, and SD-49), giving the Democratic Lieutenant Governor the tie-breaking vote.
  • State Executive Offices: Win the Attorney General’s race (open seat) and flip the Department of the Auditor General and Office of the Treasurer.

 

Political Landscape

Presidential Vote Margins

U.S. Senate Vote Margins

2020

D

+1.2%

2022

D

+4.9%

2016

R

-0.7%

2018

D

+13.1%

2012

D

+3.2%

2016

R

-1.5%

2008

D

+10.4%

2012

D

+9.1%

Balance of Power

  • U.S. Senate: 2 Democrats
  • U.S. House: 9 Democrats, 8 Republicans
  • Governorship: Democratic
  • State Senate: Republican majority (28 – 22)
  • State House: Democratic majority (102 – 101)

 

2024 Strategy

1) Retain and mobilize Black and Latine voters in Philadelphia.

  • Philadelphia is home to 54% of the state’s Black voters, 92% of whom voted for Biden in 2020. In 2024, due to lower enthusiasm for Biden, our partners are investing much more in voter persuasion efforts, in addition to voter registration and mobilization.
  • Latine voters supported Biden in 2020 by a 42% margin statewide, but we cannot take them for granted. Trump grew his vote share in Philadelphia in 2020, in no small part due to Latine support. Statewide polls now show Latine voters backing Biden by a 32% margin, and our local partners are working to maintain and boost these numbers through early, on-the-ground relational organizing and voter contact.

2) Persuade and mobilize AAPI voters across the state.

  • Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters are the fastest-growing segment of the state electorate. There are now 333,590 eligible AAPI voters — four times Biden’s statewide margin of victory in 2020.
  • In 2022, Asian Americans nationwide leaned Democratic by a 28% margin, yet 56% reported having little to no contact from Democrats. In 2020, MVP partner Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance (API PA) made 1.3 million calls to PA voters in support of Biden, with support for ten AAPI languages, and is planning to triple that in 2024. 

3) Mobilize the suburbs and mid-sized cities.

  • Biden carried PA in 2020 by winning all four historically purple “collar counties” — Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware — as well as Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. These increasingly multiracial areas have tilted Democratic since 2016.
  • MVP partners are poised to maximize turnout among voters of color, youth, and progressive white voters in mid-sized cities like Reading, York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Scranton, Allentown, Bethlehem, State College, Hazleton, and Erie.

4) Increase party-line voting up and down the ballot.

  • We need to make sure we win up and down the ballot. Split-ticket voting and ballot drop-off occurred at unusually high rates in 2020, hindering down-ballot efforts.
  • Our partners are proactively addressing this in key “nested districts” (districts with competitive races up and down ballot) — by building name recognition and support for down-ballot candidates, as well as galvanizing voters around state and local issues.

 

Partner Spotlights

API PA Votes

API PA Votes organizes year-round and excels in culturally competent and language-accessible voter contact. They will knock 500,000 doors in 2024 across Philadelphia, the collar counties (Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware), and Allegheny County, and make 4.5 million phone calls, including 15,000 calls to non-English speaking voters.

Make the Road Action Pennsylvania

Make the Road Action PA is the largest Latine organization in the state. In 2024, they will attempt 1.4 million contacts by door, phone, and text, completing 81,000 conversations by door and phone. They will focus on the US Senate race, competitive US House races (PA-01, PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08), and State House districts (126, 129, 136, 137, & 187).

One PA Victory PAC

Based in Philadelphia, One PA runs large-scale voter registration, persuasion, and turnout programs targeting a universe of primarily working-class Black voters in the five most heavily Black counties. In 2024, 20 full-time canvassers and up to 200 outreach staff will register 35,000 new voters, knock on 172,000 doors, and have 34,000 conversations with voters. One PA will also recruit 300 relational organizers to reach 22,500 close contacts by text and phone.

Pennsylvania United PAC

PA United PAC organizes communities of color and white working-class communities in Western PA. With chapters in Allegheny, Beaver, Centre, Crawford, Erie, and Westmoreland counties, PA United PAC’s work has fueled recent wins, such as a progressive victory for an Allegheny County Executive seat in 2023. In 2024, they plan to register 6,000 to 12,000 voters and knock on 432,000 to 706,000 doors.

 

2024 State Budget 

  • Total Estimated Need: $80 million
  • MVP Baseline and Stretch Goals: $10-20 million