Michigan: How We Win

2024 Electoral Goals

Presidency: Win Michigan’s 15 electoral votes.
U.S. Senate: Elect likely Democratic nominee Elissa Slotkin to the open seat.
U.S. House: Defend 7-6 House delegation majority by holding MI-07 (where Rep. Slotkin is running for Senate) and MI-08 (where Rep. Kildee is not running again), while flipping MI-10, which we narrowly lost in 2022.
Governorship: Not up for election until 2026.
Legislature: Protect the slim State House majority; State Senate not up for election.

Political Landscape

Presidential Vote Margins			U.S. Senate Vote Margins
2020	D	+2.8%	2020	D	+1.7%
2016	R	-0.3%	2018	D	+6.5%
2012	D	+9.5%	2014	D	+13.3%
2008	D	+16.5%	2012	D	+20.8%

Balance of Power

U.S. Senate: 2 Democrats
U.S. House: 7 Democrats, 6 Republicans
Governorship: Democratic
State Senate: Democratic majority (20 – 18)
State House: Split (54 – 54, with two vacancy-related April special elections favoring Democrats)

2024 Strategy

1) Galvanize youth and BIPOC voters around local issues.

Black voters could swing this election. In 2020, Black voters made up the Michigan margin of victory four times over, at 12% of the electorate and voting 92% for Biden. In 2022, Black voters were “determinative” to Democratic Governor Whitmer’s re-election.

Young voters in Michigan are an increasingly powerful bloc. In 2020, young voters chose Biden over Trump, 61% to 37%. In 2022, they voted for Democratic Governor Whitmer 63% to 36% and had a 36.5% turnout, the highest youth turnout in the nation.
In 2024, local issues will drive turnout more than candidates. Polls confirm that young voters and Black voters are less enthused for Biden this year. Even so, progressive issues are still top of mind for both groups. In 2022, Democratic turnout benefited from voters rallying around key issues, suggesting a similar approach will work this year.
MVP partners are setting the stage for issue-focused voter mobilization. Groups like Detroit Action, MOSES Action, and One Fair Wage are organizing voters around issues like jobs, housing justice, racial justice, public health, and reproductive justice — while building the case that the best way to advance these issues is to elect allies at all levels.

2) Shore up Latine turnout.

Latines are the second-largest non-white voting bloc in Michigan. Latine turnout in the state skyrocketed from 74k in 2016 to 165k in 2020 and 177k in 2022.
Latine turnout could prove decisive in 2024. In 2020, Michigan Latines voted for Biden over Trump by a 9% margin. In 2022, they voted for Democrats in Michigan’s U.S. House races by a whopping 49% margin. In a year of voter apathy, Latines could tip the scales.
MVP partners are uniquely equipped to turn out Latine voters. For example, We the People MI Action Fund and MI Poder are mobilizing Latine voters as part of their broader campaigns around issues like healthcare, raising wages, and driver’s licenses for all.

3) Help more groups do hard-hitting partisan election work.

Our nonpartisan partners could supercharge Dem turnout. Groups on the ground have organized liberal-leaning communities for years. Now they just need help going political.
That’s where our partner Back Office for Organizing in Michigan (BOOM) comes in. By streamlining key administrative functions, BOOM is helping at least three groups engage politically for the first time in 2024: 482Forward Action, MI Education Justice Coalition Action Fund, and Up North Advocacy (a new initiative in northern Michigan).

Partner Snapshots

Detroit Action

Detroit Action is a union of Black and Brown, low and no-income, homeless, and housing-insecure Detroiters fighting for housing and economic justice.

Michigan Liberation

Michigan Liberation is a statewide network organizing to end the criminalization of Black families and communities of color.

Michigan People’s Campaign

Michigan People’s Campaign is a statewide organization building a movement to put people and the planet before profits.

Mothering Justice Action Fund

Mothering Justice Action Fund has been dedicated to returning decision-making power to those most impacted: mothers of color.

Oakland Forward Action Fund

Oakland Forward Action Fund endeavors to ensure that Oakland County, Michigan residents are well-equipped to continue the fight for social and economic justice.

We the People Michigan Action Fund

We the People Michigan Action Fund is building infrastructure to engage Michiganders on unifying issues like paid sick time, redistricting, and water rights, while also creating dialogue on divisions of race, class, gender, urban/rural, and immigration.

2024 State Budget (Partisan)

Total Estimated Need: $70 million (all local voter organizing)
MVP Baseline and Stretch Goals: $10-$20 million