How We Win Congress: 2024 Strategic Overview

Introduction • Senate Summary • House Summary • Arizona • California • Colorado • Maine • Michigan • Nebraska • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • Ohio • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Washington

Note: Printable PDF version here.

Introduction

If we truly pull out all the stops, we have a strong path to winning a Democratic trifecta in 2024.

We can flip the House. We can hold the Senate. We can win the Presidency. And with this Democratic trifecta, we can pass game-changing legislation in 2025 that sets us on course toward a new, 21st-century Progressive Era.

In the U.S. House: Republicans hold a 220-212 majority (with 3 vacant seats), making a 218-seat Democratic majority within reach.
In the U.S. Senate: With a 51-49 Democratic majority (or 50 seats plus a Democratic Vice President casting the tie-breaking vote), we can pass voting rights, gerrymandering, and money out-of-politics legislation – without soon-to-be-former Senators Manchin (WV) or Sinema (AZ) getting in the way.

This is a future worth fighting for. We don’t even want to talk about the alternative.

Control of the House and Senate in 2024 will likely be determined by extremely narrow margins in just a few key races. Consider: In 2022, Democrats lost the House by 6,675 votes across just five districts. Don’t you wish you had invested in those House races?

In 2014, Democrats lost six U.S. House races by less than 1,000 votes each. In 2020, we lost an upstate New York house race by just 109 votes, and another in southeast Iowa by two votes. These razor-close margins are not an anomaly but a feature of the modern era.

We have defied the odds in the House and Senate before – in 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. In 2024, we have the potential to defy all expectations due to the incredible hard work, passion, hope, and newfound enthusiasm we all have – donors, volunteers, and voters.

MVP believes the grassroots voter engagement work happening in seven key Senate states and 24 House districts spread across 13 states will have an enormous impact on Democratic control of Congress. MVP has researched, vetted, and partnered with local grassroots organizations in every single one of these districts, and we urge donors to move funds as quickly as possible to fill their budget gaps so they can help win narrow-margin victories in as many races as possible.

Methodology, Assumptions, and Scenarios

To create the House categorizations below, we began with a wide field of more than 70 districts, including any DCCC or Swing Left targets and any races rated Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up by the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and/or Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Over multiple election cycles, we have learned to approach the analysis of which seats will ultimately be most winnable with humility — and to invest in a wider map than we would minimally need, to play effective defense or offense.

“It is incredibly difficult to accurately predict which Congressional races will be the most competitive. In 2022, none of the top 10 races for outside spending were among the closest on election day.”

— Square One, “Power Brokers: An Analysis of Outside Democratic Spending in Close Congressional Races,” September 2023

Polls are often fallible, especially for down-ballot races. There are a myriad of X-factors that impact final results, and elections often have surprising twists and turns right up to the very end.

In addition to aggregated polling, we factor in deep analyses from our grassroots partners on the ground, who share with us intimate local insights into election dynamics in real-time.

As a result, MVP is the only organization we know of, including the DCCC (!), that invested in all five of the top five closest House races we won and all five of the top five closest House races we lost in 2022 (we wish we had been able to invest more in these races!).

Simply put, our House targeting is unmatched on the Democratic side.

The MVP Approach

Target, Target, Target

We focus on the Congressional districts and US Senate races that are both the most competitive and where MVP’s core constituencies can make a real difference. We have a particular focus on competitive US House districts where BIPOC and young voters are a significant part of the voter community.

Invest Both Deep and Broad

In any scenario, we have to make sure we win all the Lean Dem and Likely D0em districts, plus as many of the Toss-Ups as we can.

We can’t just focus on Toss-Ups, since categorization is a blunt instrument and ratings are fluid, with a long lag time to change. As the cycle goes on, many races in each category shift. By the time a ratings organization switches a race to Toss-Up, it might be too late to invest effectively in a district. So we also invest in Lean and Likely Dem races as an insurance policy. If the polling is off, we’ll be sorry we didn’t do more to fortify our Lean and Likely seats.

There are also decreasing marginal returns in investing in a race when so much money is already going there. By spreading our support more broadly, we increase the chance that our investments will produce the greatest marginal impacts.

Persuade and Mobilize

Our core constituencies, more than ever, require persuasion efforts from trusted sources and with vetted, tested messaging. Simply turning out voters won’t make the difference this year – we must engage voters earlier and more consistently than we have before.

The House and Senate are long-term fights, wars of inches.

Every single 2024 race is a potential tipping point in determining future control of Congress — not only in the 2025–2026 Congress but also in the 2027–2028 and 2029–2030 Congresses as well.

Movement Voter PAC has identified a slate of grassroots groups to support in 24 of the most competitive districts. Every district and situation is different. Some districts have multiple strongly vetted organizations. Some have emerging groups that are striving to develop new capacity. We believe that the constellation of local groups in each district needs an average of an additional $300,000 to $400,000 per district in order to run a strong enough independent field program, to most significantly increase base turnout of young people and voters of color in the range of making a 1 to 3 point difference. The overall cost to adequately fund all of these groups is in the ballpark of $20 million.

Our strategy must remain flexible, and we will provide updates in real time as polling and our analysis evolve, and as we continue to vet and add recommended groups in each district. We welcome your feedback, updates, and contributions.

Senate Summary

MVP is focused on seven seats most likely to determine control of the chamber.

Arizona, Open
Ohio, Protect, Toss-Up
Nevada, Protect, Toss-Up
Montana, Protect, Toss-Up
Pennsylvania, Protect, Lean D
Michigan, Open, Lean D
Wisconsin, Protect, Lean D

House Summary

MVP is focused on 24 seats most likely to determine control of the chamber. As of June 2024, each of these districts is rated as a toss-up by at least one of the following: Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and 270 to Win.

Of interest:

7 House seats (approximately 29%) are nested in competitive Presidential states.
15 seats (approximately 63%) were decided by a 3% margin or less in 2022.
12 seats are pick-ups; 12 are protects
13 out of 24 seats (more than half) have BIPOC voting age populations of over 30%.

State Breakdown

Alaska: AL (at-large)
Arizona: AZ-01, AZ-06
California: CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-47
Colorado: CO-08
Maine: ME-02
Michigan: MI-07, MI-08
North Carolina: NC-01
Nebraska: NE-02
New Jersey: NJ-07
New Mexico: NM-02
New York: NY-04, NY-17, NY-19
Ohio: OH-09, OH-13
Oregon: OR-05
Pennsylvania: PA-07, PA-08
Washington: WA-03

Arizona

Democracy is at stake in Arizona, as a slate of MAGA candidates won Republican primaries ousting establishment players. House races include newly-competitive districts and challenges from Trump-enthusiast Republicans in red districts.

AZ-01, Pickup, Toss-Up: Redistricting made this suburban Scottsdale-area district quite competitive, but incumbent David Schweikert (R), an insurrection defender who was fined in 2020 by the House Ethics Committee for 11 different campaign finance violations, managed to hang on last cycle.
AZ-06, Pickup, Toss-Up: Redistricting transformed this from a safe Democratic seat to one of the closest races in the country, when aide to former Governor Doug Ducey, Juan Ciscomani (R), squeaked past progressive Democratic State Senator Kristen Engel to win his first term. This cycle, a rematch between these two candidates looks to be shaping up.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Arizona

Arizona Wins
LUCHA Arizona
Our Voice Our Vote Arizona
Mi Familia Vota
Chispa Arizona
Rural Arizona Action

California

Because of generally favorable shifts in California’s redistricting, several CA Congressional races — in the Central Valley, Inland Empire, and Orange County — constitute some of the best Pickup opportunities in the country for Democrats.

CA-13, Pickup, Toss-Up: This heavily-Latine, Modesto-based district was new in 2022, and John Duarte (R) barely edged out State Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) in the second closest race in the country. These candidates are headed to a rematch this year.
CA-22, Pickup, Toss-Up: Another heavily-Latine Central Valley district, this seat has been held by David Valadao (R), since 2020. It will feature a rematch with
CA-27, Pickup, Toss-Up: Republican Mike Garcia, who has held this seat since 2020, will face a new challenger this cycle, former NASA Chief of Staff and Virgin Galactic executive George Whitesides. The district is Biden +12, but, despite this, Garcia managed to win it last cycle by 6 points.
CA-41, Pickup, Toss-Up: This race will be a rematch between longtime conservative incumbent Ken Calvert (R) and former federal prosecutor, Will Rollins (D). Rollins, who is gay, should benefit from the inclusion of liberal and heavily LGBTQ Palm Springs in the district.
CA-47, Protect (Open), Toss-Up: Katie Porter retired from this seat, leaving it open and setting up a race between Scott Baugh (R), Porter’s opponent from last cycle, and State Senator Dave Min (D), whose arrest last year for drunk driving makes him a potentially tougher sell in this very slightly Democratic-leaning district.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in California

Communities for a New California
Orange County Action
Inland Empire United
Battleground California
California Working Families Party

Colorado

There are two competitive US House districts in Colorado this cycle.

CO-08, Protect: Pediatrician and state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won election to Congress for the first time in 2022 in this newly-created district, which combines heavily-Latine suburbs of Denver with more conservative exurbs in Weld County.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Colorado

New Era Colorado
Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition Action Fund

Maine

Maine features one of the most competitive House races in the country.

ME-02, Protect: This is a rural, heavily white working-class district that went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, and building the power to win there is critical to the long-term political future of the state.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Maine

Maine People’s Alliance
Food and Medicine
Maine Youth Power
New Mainers Alliance

Michigan

Michigan currently has an evenly split 14 US House seats (7D/7R). The state lost a seat in reapportionment, so to keep seven seats, Democrats have to hold the four safe seats and three of the four competitive seats.

MI-07, Protect (Open): Elissa Slotkin (D) has won close races but the seat is open this year as she vies for the US Senate seat. Republican Tom Barrett, a former state lawmaker will face Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. in what was one of the most expensive US House races in 2022. Biden won the district in 2022 with less than a 1% margin.
MI-08, Protect (Open): This is also an open seat this year, with the seat representing central MI areas like Saginaw and Flint. The nominees will be determined in an August 6th primary – both Democratic and Republican primaries are expected to be competitive.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Michigan

Michigan People’s Campaign
We the People Michigan
MOSES Action
Rising Voices of Asian American Families
Equality Michigan Action Network

Nebraska

One US House seat in Nebraska is a potential Pickup target in a district that Biden carried in 2020.

NE-02, Pickup: This is a Biden +6 district that covers Omaha and its suburbs. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R) won by 15,000 votes in 2020. Polling from both parties shows Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas tied or slightly ahead (this is the same district Biden needs to win for a potentially tie-breaking vote in the electoral college).

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Nebraska

Nebraska Appleseed Action Fund

New Jersey

Democrats have a chance to pick up one very competitive race in the state, where the Republican candidate is slightly favored in this political environment.

NJ-07, Pickup: A newly redrawn district that constitutes a significant BIPOC community, this remains an exciting opportunity for picking up a seat.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in New Jersey

Make the Road Action Fund – NJ

New Mexico

This district has shifted back and forth between Democrats and Republicans for many cycles, and we have the opportunity to defend a first-term Democratic incumbent in 2022.

NM-02, Protect: Democrat Vasquez narrowly won this Southern New Mexico district by just 1,342 votes. It will be a tough seat to hold onto.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in New Mexico

Dreams in Action
Café Acción
Organizers in the Land of Enchantment

New York

Having lost several US House races in 2022, all eyes are on New York to regain and protect seats as we look to win the US House back in 2024.

NY-04, Pickup: Congressman Anthony Desposito (R) represents the second-wealthiest Congressional district in NY, comprising central and Southern Nassau County. It is also the second-most Democratic-leaning congressional district represented by a Republican.
NY-17, Pickup: The Republican is former state GOP executive director and Assemblyman Mike Lawler. Located along the CT border, the district had gone blue for the presidency from 1992 to 2020.
NY-19, Pickup: A rematch is expected between incumbent Marc Molinaro (R) and Democratic challenger Josh Riley. A large district that covers Tompkins and Rensselaer Counties, Biden won the district in 2022 with nearly a 5% win margin.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in New York

Battleground New York

North Carolina

North Carolina has the biggest Governor’s race this cycle, critical to holding the State Supreme Court race, and a chance to break the new GOP Supermajority in the face of extreme gerrymandering.

NC-01, Protect: First-term incumbent Donald Davis narrowly won this seat in 2022 and faces Republican Laurie Buckhout, a former member of the military and businesswoman. As a result of redistricting in 2022 and 2024, the lines of this Northeastern rural district have changed and this district is a toss-up.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in North Carolina

Carolina Federation
North Carolina A. Philip Randolph Educational Fund
Ignite NC Action Fund
NCAAT in Action
Down Home North Carolina
Advance Carolina

Ohio

Ohio has three Toss-Up US House races this year in addition to the country’s most competitive US Senate seat with Sherrod Brown’s race.

OH-9, Protect: This northwest Ohio district has been represented by Marcy Kaptur since 1983. It was one of several districts challenged in a 2018 lawsuit seeking to overturn Ohio’s gerrymandered congressional map. She will race against Derek Merrin, who is backed by US House Speaker Mike Johnson.
OH-13, Protect: Ohio’s redistricting commission combined Akron and Canton into this “fair fight” district, represented by first-term Congresswoman Emilia Sykes. She will go up against Kevin Caughlin, a former member of the OH State Senate.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Ohio

Stand Up for Ohio
Ohio Progressive Alliance

Oregon

One Toss-Up seat features the chance to beat a Republican incumbent.

OR-05, Pick up: Following redistricting, the 5th district is the most evenly divided district in the state. For the first time since the 1994 election, it is represented by a Republican, freshman Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Oregon

Acción Política PCUNista
Next Up Oregon

Pennsylvania

With a competitive US Senate race and the state rated as a toss-up for the presidential, there are also two high-priority US House races Democrats must protect.

PA-07, Protect: Democrat Susan Wild holds a seat in the Lehigh Valley that has been targeted by conservatives. Republican Ryan MacKenzie will challenge her for the seat. He is a current member of the PA House of Representatives.
PA-08, Protect: Democrat Matt Cartwright holds a seat that became slightly more conservative after redistricting. It includes Scranton and adjacent towns and Counties.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Pennsylvania

Make the Road Action – PA
Pennsylvania Stands Up
Pennsylvania United
API-PA

Washington

One Washington district held by Democrats is highly competitive.

WA-03, Protect: The district is represented by Freshman Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and is the only competitive US House district in the state. The Republican primary will be held in August, where Joe Kent is a front-runner. She narrowly defeated Kent in 2022 by just 2,629 votes.

MVP-Recommended Organizations in Washington

OneAmerica Votes
Firelands

Invest in MVP’s strategy to win Congress. Give online or view donation methods.