Arizona: How We Win

2024 Electoral Goals

Presidency: Win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
U.S. Senate: Elect Democrat Ruben Gallego (open seat).
U.S. House: Net two House seats by flipping AZ-01 and AZ-06.
Governorship: Not up for election until 2026.
Legislature: Flip the State House and Senate by targeting districts 02, 04, 09, 13, 16, 17, 23, and 27. Senate pick-up seats: 02 and 17; House pick-up seats: 17 and 23.
Ballot Measure: Pass the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.
Down-Ballot: Make gains on the Arizona Corporation Commission (4-1 GOP majority); flip the Maricopa County Attorney seat; and net one seat on the Phoenix City Council.

Political Landscape

Presidential Vote Margins			U.S. Senate Vote Margins
2020	D	+0.3%	2022	D	+4.9%
2016	R	-3.5%	2020	D	+2.4%
2012	R	-10.1%	2018 (Special)	D	+2.4%
2008	R	-8.8%	2016	R	-13%

Balance of Power

U.S. Senate: 1 Democrat, 1 Independent • U.S. House: 6 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Governorship: Democratic
State Senate: Republican majority (16 – 14)
State House: Republican majority (31 – 29)

2024 Strategy

1) Galvanize Democratic voters around abortion rights.

The Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative could spur historic Democratic turnout — if we scale up our organizing. One poll showed 60% of AZ voters reporting as pro-choice, and that the initiative creates a 9% net impact on vote likelihood in Democrats’ favor. A GOP strategist said the initiative could be what “absolutely propels Joe Biden to a win.”
MVP partners are poised to turn out unlikely pro-choice voters. After learning of the ballot measure, 35% of self-identified unlikely voters said they were now likely to vote. Unlikely voters skew young and non-white — exactly the voters served by our Arizona partners such as Poder, Tomorrow We Vote Action, and Arizona Students’ Association.

2) Supercharge turnout among the New American Majority.

We won Arizona in 2020 and 2022 thanks to the New American Majority (NAM). NAM voters — young people, people of color, and unmarried women — are progressive and growing in power, with Arizona on track to be a minority-majority state by 2027.
MVP partners are best equipped to meet these voters where they are — and to mobilize them to vote for Democrats. While traditional campaigns often contact these voters only every few years (if at all), our partners have the authentic, year-round relationships to serve as effective trusted messengers, having the human (rather than transactional) conversations that can make the difference between voting or not.
Latine voters, Arizona’s largest non-white voting bloc, will comprise a quarter of the 2024 electorate, including 150,000 new eligible young voters. Arizona Latines tipped the race for Biden in 2020 and stuck firmly with Democrats in 2022 (despite false narratives to the contrary). Precinct-level analysis shows over one-third of all Arizona precincts now have a substantial Latine population, correlating with Democratic victories. Our Latine-focused partners include LUCHA, Mi Familia Vota, and Chispa.
African-Americans, Native Americans, and Asian American Pacific Islanders (AAPI) make up nearly 15% of Arizona’s eligible voters (roughly 5%, 5%, and 3.6%). Partners such as Our Voice Our Vote, Rural Arizona Action, and AZ AANHPI Advocates are targeting the counties and precincts where we can mobilize these constituencies.
Collectively, our partners are poised to run their largest, most coordinated electoral field program ever. Our partners have provided MVP with field plans to register over sixty thousand voters and attempt 3.6 million voter contacts, engaging voters by door, phone, text, peer-to-peer organizing, digital outreach, events, and even custom-tailored mail, radio, and TV communications.

Partner Snapshots

Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA)

Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) is a power-building, advocacy, and electoral organization, comprised of Latine and immigrant members. In 2024, LUCHA seeks to register over ten thousand new voters and make one million partisan voter contact attempts, strategically targeting six specific counties — Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, Coconino, Cochise, and Yuma. LUCHA seeks to flip U.S. Congressional Districts AZ-01 and AZ-06; defend AZ-03; and flip control of both chambers of the state legislature by targeting Legislative Districts 02, 04, 09, 13, 16-17, 22-24, and 26.

Our Voice, Our Vote (OVOV)

Our Voice, Our Vote (OVOV) is a member-led organization that advocates for public policies that address the most pressing issues for Black, Latine, and youth communities. Since 2018, OVOV has run the largest Black-led, Black-focused voter turnout program in Arizona. In 2024, OVOV seeks to run up Democratic margins in Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal Counties by registering 2,500 voters and making 1,635,000 contacts to Black, Indigenous, People of Color (BIPOC) voters, youth of color, newly registered Democrats, and Independents.

Rural Arizona Action

Rural Arizona Action (RAZA) works to build an active, sustainable, and progressive voting bloc in rural Arizona through education, advocacy, and organizing work in rural communities. In 2024, RAZA plans to mobilize 500,000 voters in nine rural counties, targeting the Presidential and Senate races all the way down to local school board elections. They will be especially focused on Congressional District 06, and state legislative races in Districts 16, 17, and 23, leveraging long-time community organizing to optimize a late-stage door canvass.

2024 State Budget (Partisan)

Total Estimated Need: $50M million (all local voter organizing)
MVP Baseline and Stretch Goals: $10-$20 million