How We Win in November

Note: Read MVP’s latest memo, Bat Signal 3, for an even more in-depth strategic analysis.

2024 Will Define Our Legacy.

Democracy is on the ballot. Our rights hang in the balance. Our climate is on the line.

• Nightmare Scenario: Trump wins, a MAGA Congress wins with him, and we enter a four-year nightmare worse than 2016-2020.
• Amazing Scenario: We win the Presidency, hold the Senate, AND win back the House — and pass the most transformative policy agenda of our lifetimes.

 

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Goal: An All-Out Blue Wave.

MVP is investing in local groups organizing in all the key states and districts to secure a Blue Wave up and down the ballot — so we can pass transformative policy in 2025.

Objective #1: Win the Presidency.

Our most important task is to stop Trump and the extremist GOP from taking power.

Objective #2: Win a Bold, Democratic Congress.

If we can save the Senate and take back the House, we will set the stage for passing the most progressive policy agenda in decades.

Objective #3: Win the States.

Durable power starts in the states. In 2024 we can end and prevent veto-proof GOP supermajorities, and win governorships, state chambers, down-ballot races, and crucial ballot campaigns like abortion rights measures in Florida and Arizona.

 

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Strategy

The MVP Model

1. Target the most pivotal places and races.
2. Invest in the best local voter organizations.
3. Organize key voters with the power to tip the scales.
4. Win elections and transformative policy change — at every level of government.

The Battlegrounds: Where We Need to Win

In 2024, MVP is focusing on:

• The Big Nine Presidential + Senate battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio (Senate only), and Montana (Senate only).
• The roughly two-dozen most competitive House districts.
• Secondary battlegrounds with key down-ballot and long-term contests, especially control of state legislatures.

See our 2024 state targeting and methodology in greater detail.

The Voters: Who We Need to Mobilize

Key constituencies: Young voters, voters of color, women, and other often-marginalized communities such as immigrant and LGBTQ voters.

We will also target cross-pressured white voters, male voters, union households, rural voters, working-class voters, and persuadable independents of all races.

The Ground Game: Who We Need to Fund

MVP is strategically investing in the hundreds of local and multi-state organizations that have track records of registering, educating, galvanizing, and turning out these voters.

These organizations fall into roughly five categories in terms of scope and scale: 

1. Major multi-state anchor organizations (there are approximately 100 of these), like People’s Action and the Alliance for Youth Action.
2. Small-to-midsize national players (approx. 200), like UnPac and Be a Hero.
3. Major state-level groups (approximately 100 in the battleground states), such as Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) and New Georgia Project Action Fund.
4. Mid-sized local groups (approx. 100), such as Durham for All (in North Carolina) and 1Hood Power (in Pennsylvania).
5. Micro-local groups (approx. 1,000) such as the many small town organizations in Georgia’s rural Black Belt supported by Black Voters Matter Fund.

The Challenge: Create a “Permission Structure” to Vote Against Trump

A fancy name for what we are doing is creating a permission structure for voters to gradually decide to vote against Trump this fall. 

A permission structure “provides an emotional and psychological justification that allows someone to change deeply held beliefs and/or behaviors while importantly retaining their pride and integrity.” 

Here’s the bottomline: Some key voters we need in our coalition are nowhere near ready to vote for Biden. To win them (back) over, we need to walk them back from the brink — back from a spoiler vote, and mainly back from the couch — in a very deliberate, emotionally intelligent, incremental process between now and the fall.

The Approach: Meeting Voters Where They Are

The Spectrum of Support diagram should make it clear that we are not talking about a one-and-done conversation with a disillusioned voter.

We’re talking about warm, relational, steady engagement, with multiple touches over time between now and Election Day. (This is one important rationale for giving early, not just in a panic a few weeks before the election.)

Five key strategies to turn out the voters who can tip the scales:

At a micro-level, this looks like tens of thousands of organizers, canvassers, volunteers, and local influencers having genuine conversations with tens of millions of voters which incorporate five strategic lenses:

1. Human connection through deep canvassing and empathetic listening.
2. Personal storytelling in which the canvasser authentically shares what is motivating them personally in this election (rather than parroting the usual, superficial b.s. partisan messaging pabulum).
3. Highlighting the threat of Trump II, helping voters overcome the “Trump Amnesia” that has stricken far too many Americans.
4. Crediting voters for Biden’s progress, making them the true heroes of the story – creating a renewed sense of efficacy that makes them far more likely to vote again.
5. Sharing a vision for 2025 and what is possible if we elect a governing majority that is on-the-record as ready to secure voting rights, protect abortion rights, invest in climate solutions, support working families, and so much more.

State-Level Strategy

In every top-priority state, we have crafted a comprehensive strategy to drive turnout, win in 2024, and build power for 2025 and beyond. View our plans for Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Plans forthcoming for Montana and Ohio.

 

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Campaign Deck

Giving a presentation? Here’s the deck.

 

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The MVP 2024 Field Plan

The MVP 2024 Field Plan is a 12-month campaign with four key phases. In each phase, MVP grantee partners carry out crucial, distinctive work that builds toward the next.

For illustration purposes, here is a non-exhaustive (and simplified) roadmap. Timing, sequencing, and nuances will vary by state and organization.

PHASE 1 (January – March): Catalyze

• Align and refine strategy, internally and with statewide allies, for voter registration (helping eligible supporters register to vote), identification (identifying supporters or persuadable voters), persuasion (swaying undecided voters), and mobilization (aka Get-Out-The-Vote, GOTV).
• Assess and build capacity by developing organizational and coalition-wide tools, skills, and systems to meet the anticipated challenges of the year ahead.
• Engage constituencies and recruit volunteers for the most robust operation possible.

PHASE 2 (April – June): Galvanize

• Identify and register voters among key geographies and demographics.
• Support or oppose key bills and candidates as a way to advance policy priorities, define allies and opponents, and motivate turnout.
• Win primaries and special elections, crucial building blocks to ensuring turnout in the general election.

PHASE 3 (July – September): Mobilize

• Voter engagement via peer organizing, canvassing, calls, texts, and events.
• Voter persuasion using trusted local messengers to sway undecided voters.
• Get Out the Early Vote in states with early voting by mail or in person.

PHASE 4 (October – December): Endgame

• Final Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) to maximize supporter turnout by Election Day — and for runoffs as needed, i.e. the U.S. Senate race in Georgia.
• Election protection to counter voter suppression, ensure all votes are counted, and overcome election subversion tactics by MAGA extremists.
• Campaign evaluation to identify best practices and lessons learned. This period also includes crucial 2025 planning, when local partners’ focus will shift toward local power building and policy advocacy.

 

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Join the Campaign

Early funding for local organizing in swing states is how we win.

Give Big.

Contribute online today to support our campaign for a Blue Wave in 2024.

Gifts over $5,000: Contact your MVP Advisor / Liaison or email [email protected] and we will be happy to help you craft a giving plan to maximize your impact.

Give Now.

Every dollar today yields more votes than a dollar closer to Election Day.

Spread the Word.

Adapt and share our sample message by email and social media.