2022 Senate + House Strategic Overview
September 9, 2022
Control of the House and Senate after 2022 will likely be decided by extremely narrow margins in just a few key races. In 2014, Democrats lost six house races by less than 1,000 votes each. In 2020, they lost an upstate New York house race by just 109 votes, and another in southeast Iowa by just two votes. MVP believes we have a moral imperative to do everything in our power before Election Day to secure as many seats as possible in both chambers and to impact as many governors and down-ballot races. Besides the harm that we must prevent to our democracy, climate, abortion rights, judiciary, and more, with 52 seats in the Senate, we have the potential to pass historic legislation without letting senators like Manchin or Sinema block progress.
The momentum is on our side. Based on improvements in polling, political, and economic conditions in the past month, after a truly awful year, the tide is turning. The assumption has been that 2022 would be an epic wave year for Republicans — and that could still happen. But the emerging, just as likely, possibility is that 2022 will flip all the expectations due to the incredible enthusiasm, hard work, and passion of donors, volunteers, and voters. MVP believes that the grassroots voter engagement work happening in seven key Senate states and 67 House districts spread across 31 states will have an enormous impact on Democratic control of Congress. MVP has researched, vetted, and partnered with 90 local grassroots organizations in every single one of these districts, and we urge donors to move funds as quickly as possible, to fill their budget gaps so they can help win narrow-margin victories in as many races as possible.
To create the House categorizations below, we began with a wide field of 113 districts, including any DCCC or Swing Left target and any race rated Likely, Lean, or Toss Up by the Cook Political Report and/or Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Over multiple election cycles, we have learned to approach the analysis of which seats will ultimately be most winnable with humility — and to invest in a wider map than we would minimally need, to play effective defense or offense. Polls are often fallible, especially on down-ballot races. There are a myriad of X-factors that impact final results, and elections often have surprising twists and turns right up to the very end. In addition to aggregated polling, we factor in deep analyses from our grassroots partners on the ground, who share with us intimate local insights into election dynamics in real time.
Toss Up races are a priority, but they are in no way our only priority. Protecting vulnerable Democratic seats is also a top priority, and one not to be taken for granted. It’s usually easier to protect a seat than to pick up a new one, and we can’t depend solely on the Toss Up races to save the House. Inevitably, we’re going to lose some of them.
Invest Both Deep and Broad
In any scenario, we have to make sure we win all the Lean Dem and Likely Dem districts, plus as many of the Toss Ups as we can. We can’t just focus on Toss Ups, since categorization is a blunt instrument and ratings are fluid, with a long lag time to change. As the cycle goes on, many races in each category shift. By the time a ratings organization switches a race to Toss Up, it might be too late to invest effectively in a district. So we also invest in Lean and Likely Dem races as an insurance policy. If the polling is off, we’ll be sorry we didn’t do more to fortify our Lean and Likely seats. There are also decreasing marginal returns in investing in a race when so much money is already going there. By spreading our support more broadly, we increase the chance that our investments will produce the greatest marginal impacts.
The House and Senate are long-term fights, and wars of inches
Every single 2022 race is a potential tipping point in determining future control of Congress — not only in the 2023–2024 Congress, but also in the 2025–2026, 2027–2028, and 2029–2030 Congresses as well
Movement Voter PAC has identified a slate of grassroots groups to support in 67 of the most competitive districts. Every district and situation is different. Some districts have multiple strongly vetted organizations. Some have emerging groups that are striving to develop new capacity. We believe that the constellation of local groups in each district needs an average of an additional $200,000 to $350,000 per district, in order to run a strong-enough independent field program, to most significantly increase base turnout of young people and voters of color in the range of making a 1 to 3 point difference. Most of the groups we are profiling are under the radar for many national progressive donors, and often aren’t receiving significant special funding for their work around these House races. The overall cost to adequately fund all of these groups is in the ballpark of $20 million.
To keep things in perspective, on average, a Congressional candidate needs to raise $3 million for a competitive general election. Candidates in expensive media markets such as Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, or Philadelphia need to raise substantially more. In 2018, Democrats spent close to $1.5 billion directly on Congressional candidates, and more on outside efforts. The level of funds we need to raise to ensure a robust local independent progressive field effort represents less than 1% of total Congressional spending on the Democratic side.
Our strategy must remain flexible, and we’ll be providing updates in real time as polling and our analysis evolve, and as we continue to vet and add recommended groups in each district. We welcome your feedback, updates, and contributions.
MVP is focused on seven seats most likely to determine control of the chamber.
- Arizona, Protect, Lean D
- Georgia, Protect, Toss Up
- Nevada, Protect, Toss Up
- New Hampshire, Protect, Lean D
- North Carolina, Open, Lean R
- Pennsylvania, Open, Lean D
- Wisconsin, Pick-up, Toss Up
MVP is focused on 67 seats that are aligned with our strategy and are likely to determine control of the chamber. District ratings are per Cook Political Report.
- Alaska: AK-At Large
- Arizona: AZ-04
- Georgia: GA-02
- Illinois: IL-06, IL-13
- Kansas: KS-03
- Maryland: MD-06
- Michigan: MI-03, MI-08
- New Hampshire: NH-02
- New York: NY-03, NY-18
- Nevada: NV-04
- North Carolina: NC-01
- Ohio: OH-09
- Pennsylvania: PA-12
- Arizona: AZ-02
- California: CA-22, CA-27
- Colorado: CO-08
- Connecticut: CT-05
- Illinois: IL-17
- Indiana: IN-01
- Maine: ME-02
- Michigan: MI-07
- Minnesota: MN-02
- Nebraska: NE-02
- New Hampshire: NH-01
- New Mexico: NM-02
- Nevada: NV-01, NV-03
- New York: NY-17, NY-19, NY-22
- North Carolina: NC-13
- Ohio: OH-01, OH-13
- Oregon: OR-05
- Pennsylvania: PA-07, PA-08, PA-17
- Rhode Island: RI-02
- Virginia: VA-02, VA-07
- Washington: WA-08
- Arizona: AZ-02, AZ-06
- California: CA-40, CA-41, CA-45
- Florida: FL-07, FL-13, FL-15, FL-27
- Iowa: IA-03
- Michigan: MI-10
- Minnesota: MN-01
- Montana: MT-01
- New Jersey: NJ-07
- New York: NY-01, NY-02
- Pennsylvania: PA-01, PA-10
- Texas: TX-15
- Wisconsin: WI-01, WI-03, WI-05
Alaska’s electoral system combines the nation’s first top-four primary with ranked choice voting in the general election. In the Senate race, in the absence of a path to victory for the Democratic candidate, groups are working to help incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) defeat a Trump-aligned competitor. Democrat Mary Peltola won the special election to fill the remainder of the current term.
- AK-At Large, Lean D: Mary Peltola, a Native Alaskan and progressive Democrat, won an August special election to fill this seat for the remainder of the current term following the death of Don Young (R). After Peltola’s win in the special, the general election race is now rated Lean D. Under the ranked-choice voting format, many voters who selected Nick Begich (R) as their first choice selected Peltola as their second choice, over Sarah Palin (R). Both Republican candidates remain in the race for the general.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Alaska
- The Alaska Center
Democracy is at stake in Arizona, as a slate of MAGA candidates won Republican primaries ousting establishment players. Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D) will be facing Trump-endorsed 2020 election denier Blake Masters. Protecting his seat is essential for Democrats to keep a majority in the Senate. House races include newly competitive districts and challenges from Trump-enthusiast Republicans in red districts.
- AZ-01, Pickup, Toss Up: Redistricting brought the seat from Trump +4 to Biden +1, putting it in play. Democrat Jevin Hodge challenges incumbent David Schweikert (R), an insurrection defender.
- AZ-02, Protect, Lean R: Redistricting has put incumbent Democrat Tom O’Halleran in danger. The district shifted from Biden +2 to Trump +8 and the House race is now rated Lean R.
- AZ-04, Protect, Likely D: Redistricting brought the district from Biden +23 to Biden +10, bringing it more in play for Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton faces election denier Kelly Cooper.
- AZ-06, Open, Lean R: Redistricting brought this Tucson seat from Biden +11 to Biden +0.1, making it highly competitive.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Arizona
- Arizona Wins
- LUCHA Arizona
- Our Voice Our Vote Arizona
- Mi Familia Vota
- Chispa Arizona
- Rural Arizona Action
Because of generally favorable shifts in California’s redistricting, several CA Congressional races — in the Central Valley, Inland Empire, and Orange County — constitute some of the best pick-up opportunities in the country for Democrats.
- CA-22, Pick-up, Toss Up: The 69% Latinx district is held by David Valadao (R), first elected in 2020. It is a Toss Up. State Assembly member Rudy Salas is the Democratic nominee.
- CA-27, Pick-up, Toss Up: Democratic Assembly member Christy Smith is challenging incumbent Mike Garcia (R) for the third time. The district is Biden +12.
- CA-40, Pick-up, Likely R: While the seat strongly favors incumbent Young Kim (R), MVP partners are working to build power here, aiming to potentially flip the seat in 2024.
- CA-41, Pick-up, Lean/Likely R: Incumbent Ken Calvert (R) was redistricted here from the 42nd. This district is Trump +1, based in Riverside County and extending into the Coachella Valley.
- CA-45, Pick-up, Lean R: The district is rated Lean R but is Biden +6, more blue than Republican incumbent Michelle Steel’s current seat.
MVP Recommended Organizations in California
- Communities for a New California
- Orange County Civic Engagement Table Action
One new US House seat, created as a result of redistricting, will be competitive.
- CO-08, Open, Toss Up/Lean R: This new seat extends north from Denver and was designed as a “fair fight” district. It is 38% Latinx and would have voted Trump +2 in 2016 and Biden +5 in 2020. Pediatrician and state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) will face State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R).
MVP Recommended Organizations in Colorado
- COLOR Action Fund
- CIRC Action Fund
- Working Families Party – CO
One Connecticut House district is a priority to protect in 2022.
- CT-05, Protect, Toss Up: Incumbent Jahana Hayes (D) faces former state Sen. George Logan (R), a Black candidate who is running on “radical sensibility.” The district is Biden +11.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Connecticut
- Working Families Party – CT
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ redistricting resulted in gerrymandered maps and is expected to expand Republicans’ current 16–11 seat advantage. The new maps eliminated two Black-led districts, leading to a sit-in on the State House floor. The Senate race is becoming highly competitive, with recent polls showing Val Demings (D) in a very tight race with Marco Rubio (R).
- FL-07, Open, Likely R: While redistricting made this seat much more conservative, MVP’s partners are active in the district, building power for this year and the future.
- FL-13, Open, Likely R: Republican redistricting carved most of St. Petersburg’s Black neighborhoods out of this Pinellas County seat, flipping it from Biden +4 to Trump +7. The seat was held by Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor.
- FL-15, Open, Likely R: This newly drawn seat in suburban Tampa favors Republicans, but MVP partners are active in the district, building power for this year and the future.
- FL-27, Pick-up, Lean R: Democratic nominee State Sen. Annette Taddeo is challenging incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar (R), who was elected in 2020. Redistricting made the seat more favorable to Republicans.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Florida
- Florida For All
- Florida Rising
- Dream Defenders Fight PAC
- Florida Immigrant Coalition Votes
- Faith in Florida Action Fund
Georgia organizations are fighting to re-elect Senator Raphael Warnock, who faces Trump-backed football star Herschel Walker in a race that could determine control of the Senate. The seat is a must-win. Georgia House races include a high-priority seat to defend.
- GA-02, Protect, Likely D: Incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) faces a challenge from Republican State Rep. Chris West. While redistricting maps from 2021 cut Black voters in this district, it is one of the most consistently Democratic and majority-Black districts (49%) in the country. This district is in the southwest corner of the state, covering key counties including Macon, Dougherty, and Decatur.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Georgia
- New Georgia Project Action Fund
- Asian American Advocacy Fund
- Black Voters Matter
- Black Male Voter Project
- Georgia Working Families Party
- GLAHR Action Network
Democrats made some seats more favorable through redistricting but multiple seats will still be hotly contested.
- IL-06, Protect, Likely D: Incumbent Sean Casten (D) beat fellow incumbent Marie Newman (D) after they were drawn into the same district. He’ll face Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau (R).
- IL-13, Open, Lean D: Democratic legislators redrew this downstate seat from Trump +3 to Biden +11, forcing incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis (R) to run elsewhere. Dem nominee Nikki Budzinski worked for Gov. Pritzker and served at OMB. She faces Regan Deering (R).
- IL-17, Open, Toss Up: Rep. Cheri Bustos (D) is retiring, and redistricting shifted the seat from Trump +2 to Biden +8 — but Republican nominee Esther Joy King lost to Bustos by only 4 points in 2020, and has a strong chance against former meteorologist Eric Sorensen (D).
MVP Recommended Organizations in Illinois
- Center for Racial and Gender Equity
- Illinois Immigrant Action
One competitive House seat in Indiana will help determine the balance of Congress.
- IN-01, Protect, Toss Up: Incumbent Frank Mrvan (D), who was first elected in 2020, is challenged by Jennifer-Ruth Green, a Black Air Force veteran and potential GOP rising star.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Indiana
- ACT Indiana
One competitive race in Iowa will help determine the balance of the House.
- IA-03, Protect, Lean R: Incumbent Cindy Axne (D, first elected in 2018) faces a challenge from State Senator Zach Nunn (R) in this competitive Des Moines district.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Iowa
- Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement Action
Building on the momentum from the successful campaign to protect abortion access during the August primary, Kansas features a key opportunity to hold onto a contested congressional seat.
- KS-03, Protect, Lean D: Incumbent Democrat Sharice Davids is one of only four Native/Indigenous representatives in Congress and a member of the Congressional LGBTQ+ community. Redistricting made this a +4 Republican district, and Kansans are mobilizing like never before to keep her in office.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Kansas
- Mainstream Coalition
- Loud Light Civic Action
- Prairie Roots Kansas
Maine features one of the most competitive House races in the country.
- ME-02, Protect, Toss Up: Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is holding a slight polling lead over Republican Bruce Poliquin, who Golden beat in 2018 by 1.2%, and only after ranked-choice voting brought him back from second place in a four-way field. This is a rural, heavily white working-class district that went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, and building the power to win there is critical to the long-term political future of the state.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Maine
- Maine People’s Alliance
- Food and Medicine
- Maine Youth Power
- New Mainers Alliance
Maryland’s eight-seat House delegation currently includes seven Democrats. One seat became newly competitive after redistricting.
- MD-06, Protect, Likely D: The new map makes re-election more challenging for incumbent David Trone (D), although the race is still rated Lean D. The Republican nominee is the pro-Trump state Del. Neil Parrott, who also ran in 2020.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Maryland
- Progressive Maryland
Michigan currently has an evenly split 14 US House seats (7D/7R). The state lost a seat in reapportionment, so to keep seven seats, Democrats have to hold the four safe seats and three of the four competitive seats.
- MI-03, Open, Lean D: Trump-endorsed John Gibbs defeated pro-impeachment Rep. Peter Meijer in the Republican primary. The Democratic nominee is Hillary Scholten, who lost to Meijer in 2020. The Grand Rapids area seat was redrawn from Trump +3 to Biden +9.
- MI-07, Protect, Toss Up: Elissa Slotkin (D) won a close race in 2020 and this year faces a challenge from Iraq veteran and state Sen. Tom Barrett (R).
- MI-08, Protect, Lean D: Incumbent Dan Kildee (D) faces his toughest re-election since taking the seat in 2012, against former news anchor and Trump appointee Paul Junge (R).
- MI-10, Open, Likely R: Incumbent Andy Levin (D) chose to run in the primary for the bluer 11th district after redistricting, leaving this seat open.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Michigan
- Michigan People’s Campaign
- We the People MI
- MOSES Action
- Rising Voices of Asian American Families
- Equality Michigan Action Network
Democrats hold four of Minnesota’s eight US House seats, with one of those especially vulnerable in 2022. Our partners are also working hard to flip one additional seat in rapidly changing Southern Minnesota within the next few cycles.
- MN-1, Pick-up, Likely R: Incumbent Brad Finstad just won this seat in a much closer than expected special election in August 2022 (51/47). While this is a Trump +7 district, there is particularly strong grassroots organizing happening here, and local organizers are not giving up.
- MN-02, Protect, Toss Up: Incumbent Angie Craig (D) won this seat, in the suburbs and areas south and southeast of the Twin Cities, by just two points in 2020.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Minnesota
- Faith in Minnesota
- UNIDOS Minnesota
- Land Stewardship Action Fund
- Gender Justice Action
- Minnesota Youth Collective
- OutFront Minnesota
Engaging in the race for the open seat in Montana’s first district will help build toward 2024.
- MT-01, Open, Lean R: While Republicans are favored here, the seat is competitive and supporting grassroots organizing in the district is critical as we look to build power in Montana in the lead-up to 2024, when we will need to protect Montana’s Democratic Senate seat.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Montana
- Forward Montana
- Western Native Vote Action Fund
- Montana League of Rural Voters
One US House seat in Nebraska is a potential pick-up target in a district that Biden carried in 2020.
- NE-02, Pick-up, Toss Up/Lean R: This is a Biden +6 district that covers Omaha and its suburbs. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R) won by 15,000 votes in 2020. Polling from both parties shows Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas tied or slightly ahead.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Nebraska
- Nebraska Appleseed Action Fund
Despite the fact that Nevada’s electorate has been becoming less white over the last decade, Democratic margins in the state are getting smaller. Nearly every race is incredibly competitive. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this year. Grassroots, and especially union, infrastructure in the state is strong, and local groups need funding to run their robust planned voter engagement programs.
- NV-01, Protect, Toss Up/Lean D: The previously safe seat of Dina Titus (D) is a Toss Up after redistricting.
- NV-03, Protect, Toss Up: Redistricting made this seat slightly more favorable for Democrats, but it remains a Toss Up in Las Vegas’s diverse western suburbs.
- NV-04, Protect, Toss Up/Lean D: The seat is a Toss Up, although redistricting made it slightly bluer.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Nevada
- UNITE HERE Action Fund
- Workers Vote
- Make the Road Action Fund – Nevada
- One APIA Nevada
Senator Maggie Hassan is widely considered the fourth most vulnerable Democratic Senator in 2022 (after the senators in GA, AZ, and NV). Both NH congressional seats are very competitive. In Republican primaries for the Senate seat and for both House seats, more establishment-aligned candidates lost to further right or more anti-establishment candidates.
- NH-01, Protect, Toss Up/Lean D: Incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is generally considered to be the most vulnerable of the two incumbent Democrats in New Hampshire.
- NH-02, Protect, Lean D: Incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D) is also vulnerable.
MVP Recommended Organizations in New Hampshire
- Rights and Democracy
- New Hampshire Youth Movement Project
- Granite State Interfaith Action Fund
- 350 New Hampshire Action
Democrats must hold one very competitive race in the state, where the Republican candidate is slightly favored in this political environment.
- NJ-07, Protect, Lean R: Incumbent Tom Malinowski (D) faces moderate State Sen. Tom Kean (R) in a rematch of 2020, when Malinowski won by only one percentage point.
MVP Recommended Organizations in New Jersey
- Make the Road Action Fund – NJ
Democrats have the opportunity to reclaim a seat that was lost in 2020.
- NM-02, Pick-up, Toss Up: The district improved for Democrats via redistricting, and, even with the old lines, was won by a Democrat as recently as 2018. The new district is Biden +6.
MVP Recommended Organizations in New Mexico
- New Mexico Voices for Children Action Fund
- Center for Civic Action
- NM Native Vote
Redistricting shifted the dynamics of several House races in New York, resulting in multiple open seats — held by Democrats under the old maps — that are rated Toss Ups.
- NY-01, Open, Lean R: Redistricting brought the seat currently held by Lee Zeldin (R) from Trump +4 to Biden +0.2, making it winnable for Dems.
- NY-02, Pick-up, Lean R: Redistricting brought this seat from Trump +4 to Trump +1.5. Incumbent Andrew Garbarino (R) was first elected in 2020, with 53% of the vote.
- NY-03, Open, Lean D: Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D) gubernatorial bid leaves this seat open. The district includes western Long Island and small pieces of Queens. Republican nominee George Santos would be the first openly gay Republican member of Congress if elected.
- NY-17, Open, Toss Up: DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney is running here after the 18th district became more conservative, but this race is now competitive as well. The Republican nominee is former state GOP executive director and Assemblyman Mike Lawler.
- NY-18, Open, Lean D: This seat, in a district that is 38% people of color, is open due to incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney (D)’s decision to run in NY-17. Democrat Pat Ryan will run as an incumbent after winning the August special election for NY-19, under the old maps.
- NY-19, Open, Toss Up: Democrat Pat Ryan won a significant special election victory over Dutchess County Executive Marcus Molinaro in August to fill this seat, vacated by now Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, for the remainder of the term. In November, under the new maps, Ryan will run in the 18th while Molinaro faces Democrat Josh Riley in the redrawn 19th.
- NY-22, Open, Toss Up: The seat is open following Republican John Katko’s retirement, and will be highly competitive.
MVP Recommended Organizations in New York
- Working Families Party – NY
- Make the Road Action Fund – NY
- Citizen Action of New York
- Community Voices Heard Power
North Carolina has an open US Senate seat where Cheri Beasley, a Black woman and former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court, is running against a Trump-aligned Republican. We also have the opportunity to win in a newly drawn US House seat, as well as a competitive House seat that we need to hold following an incumbent’s retirement.
- NC-01, Open, Likely D: The rural seat of retiring Rep. G. K. Butterfield (D) is more competitive after redistricting, but state Sen. Don Davis (D) leads in polls and has far outspent MAGA activist Sandy Smith (R).
- NC-13, Open, Toss Up: This is a newly drawn district and is a Toss Up, including parts of Raleigh, Wake County suburbs, and rural areas.
MVP Recommended Organizations in North Carolina
- Carolina Federation
- North Carolina A. Philip Randolph Educational Fund
- Ignite NC Action Fund
- NCAAT in Action
- Down Home North Carolina
- Advance Carolina
Ohio has three Toss Up US House races this year, one of which could see January 6 rally attendee and QAnon dabbler J.R. Majewski unseat Marcy Kaptur.
- OH-01, Pickup, Toss Up: Redistricting makes this Cincinnati-area urban/suburban district a flip opportunity for Democrats. Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) has served since 1995.
- OH-09, Protect, Lean D: Incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) must defend this Toledo district against January 6 attendee J.R. Majewski, who also misrepresented his military service, lying about having served in Afghanistan.
- OH-13, Open, Toss Up: Ohio’s redistricting commission combined Akron and Canton into this “fair fight” district. State Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) is running against Fox commentator and former Miss Ohio Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R).
MVP Recommended Organizations in Ohio
- Stand Up for Ohio
One Toss Up seat features a progressive Democratic nominee who beat an incumbent in the primary.
- OR-05, Open, Toss Up: Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeated incumbent Kurt Schrader (D) in the primary, helped in part by redistricting, and now faces Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R), a former local mayor. The seat is Biden +9.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Oregon
- Pineros y Campesinos Unidos del Noroeste
- Asian Pacific American Network of Oregon
- Basic Rights Oregon Equality PAC
The Pennsylvania Senate race is consistently ranked the most likely Democratic pick-up, as Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) runs against Mehmet Oz (R) to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R). High-priority US House races include seats Democrats must protect, and pick-up opportunities.
- PA-01, Pick-up, Solid R: Republican Brian Fitzpatrick occupies a swing seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. The seat is Biden +5, but Fitzpatrick won by 13 points in 2020.
- PA-07, Protect, Toss Up: Democrat Susan Wild holds a seat in the Lehigh Valley that has been targeted by conservatives.
- PA-08, Protect, Toss Up: Democrat Matt Cartwright holds a seat that became slightly more conservative after redistricting.
- PA-10, Pick-up, Solid R: The seat is a long shot, but incumbent Rep. Scott Perry refused a subpoena from the January 6th commission. The Democratic candidate, Shamaine Daniels, is an immigrant rights activist, lawyer, and Harrisburg City Councilwoman.
- PA-12, Open, Likely/Solid D: While this is most likely a safe Democratic seat, it represents the first opportunity to elect a Black woman to the House from Pennsylvania, Summer Lee. The Republican nominee, Mike Doyle, coincidentally has the exact same name as the retiring, long-time Democratic incumbent, which could cause confusion.
- PA, 17, Open, Toss Up: The seat of outgoing Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in the Pittsburgh suburbs is highly competitive.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Pennsylvania
- Make the Road Action – PA
- Pennsylvania Stands Up
- Pennsylvania United
- NAKASEC Action Fund
Redistricting resulted in fewer majority people of color districts, leaving fewer competitive districts in Texas. All eyes are on the South Texas Rio Grande Valley, where all the districts are 75%+ Latinx and a progressive young Latina is running for TX-15, the most competitive district.
- TX-15, Protect, Likely R: This is the most competitive district Democrats must protect. Democratic nominee and progressive champion Michelle Vallejo runs against Monica De La Cruz, a well-funded, Trump-endorsed candidate who was also the Republican nominee in 2020. Vallejo was recruited to run by progressive organization Lupe Votes, and she signed on to the Pueblo Platform, which includes a $15 minimum wage and Medicare for All. Rep. Vincente Gonzalez (D), who represents the current 15th, is running in the now-bluer 34th. If elected, Vallejo would be the first Latina Democrat to represent the Valley in Congress.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Texas
- LUPE PAC
- LUPE Votes
- Working Families Party – TX
One Rhode Island seat held by a retiring Democrat could be in danger.
- RI-02, Open, Toss Up: With Rep. Jim Langevin (D) retiring, the seat is open and Republicans have a strong nominee in Allen Fung, the moderate, well-liked, 12-year mayor of Cranston, RI. Democratic nominee Seth Magaziner is the state’s current elected general treasurer.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Rhode Island
- Working Families Party – Rhode Island
There are two Toss Up Congressional races in Virginia this year, one of which could see a MAGA-style candidate, Yesli Vega, elected to the House.
- VA-02, Protect, Toss Up: State Sen. Jen Kiggans (R) challenges incumbent Elaine Luria (D). The district narrowed from Biden +5 to Biden +2 with redistricting. In the 2021 governor’s race, the seat voted Republican by 11 points.
- VA-07, Protect, Toss Up: Republicans nominated MAGA-style Latina candidate Yesli Vega, a former Prince William County Supervisor, to challenge incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D).
MVP Recommended Organizations in Virginia
- New Virginia Majority
One Washington district held by Democrats is highly competitive.
- WA-08, Protect, Toss Up: Incumbent Kim Schrier (D) faces a tough challenge from Matt Larkin (R), a former Bush White House aide, in this district covering Seattle’s exurbs.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Washington
- OneAmerica Votes
- Washington Community Action Network
Wisconsin’s Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, a vocal proponent of the Big Lie who was involved in a fake electors scheme, is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Recent polling comparing Johnson to Democrat Mandela Barnes shows Barnes leading by 7 points. In the US House, there is an open seat in the 3rd district, representing the bulk of western Wisconsin, that is widely seen as one of the seats nationally that will determine who controls the House.
- WI-01, Pick-up, Solid R: This district has moved further to the left by +4% and is a potential pick-up target, but it’s a tough race with incumbent Bryan Steil (R) winning by 60% in the last election.
- WI-03, Open, Likely R: This is one of just seven House districts in the country that was carried by Trump in 2020 but represented in Congress by a Democrat. With Ron Kind (D) retiring, Republican candidate Derrick Van Orden, who barely lost to Kind in 2020 (51% to 49%), has an advantage in the rural, Trump +5 seat.
- WI-05, Pick-up, Solid R: It is not realistic to flip this seat right now, but competing here is important to our long-term strategy to continue building progressive outposts in this deep red district.
MVP Recommended Organizations in Wisconsin
- LIT Action Fund
- Wisconsin Working Families Party PAC
- Wisconsin Conservation Voters
- Citizen Action of Wisconsin